Наукові записки НаУКМА. Економічні науки

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"Наукові записки НаУКМА. Економічні науки" – рецензоване наукове фахове видання відкритого доступу, що публікує статті в галузі економіки. Журнал створено 1999 року Національним університетом "Києво-Могилянська академія". Журнал входить до переліку наукових фахових видань України, в яких можуть публікуватися результати дисертаційних робіт на здобуття наукових ступенів доктора і кандидата наук. У журналі "Наукові записки НаУКМА. Економічні науки" публікуються оригінальні статті, матеріали проблемного і дискусійного характеру, оригінальні теоретичні та емпіричні дослідження в галузі економічної теорії, маркетингу, менеджменту, бізнесу. Журнал виходить 1 раз на рік.

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Analysis of Advertisement Financial Efficiency in Pharmaceutical Sphere
(2017) Dadashova, Pervin; Khobta, V.
This paper defines the main trends of pharmaceutical market development in Ukraine and presents the most common measures of the demand stimulation for pharmaceutical products, primarily advertisement. The scope of the investigation included the analysis of the impact of these measures on the companies’ revenue from sales, with the use of the panel data model, and the group of products with the low income level without advertisement was defined. The respective group was additionally analyzed with the use of cluster analysis that allowed for conclusion on the most efficient demand stimulation instruments. The obtained results show that in order to perform an efficient advertisement campaign, it is necessary to analyze statistical data regarding separate products sales with the application of the methods presented in the paper.
Application of the Scoring Approach to Monitoring Function of Central Bank Credit Registry
(2021) Filatov, Vladyslav; Kaminsky, Аndriy
The Central Bank Credit Registry was established in Ukraine in 2018. The two key functions which are fulfilled by Credit Register are monitoring and credit information sharing. This paper is devoted to applying a scoring approach for monitoring function realization in segments of individuals. The logic of using scoring tools to monitoring is based on an objective to create an effective form which reflects the dynamic of the above-mentioned segment. Data mining procedures for Credit Registry were realized and most significant characteristics were chosen. Correlation analysis for characteristics was applied. Different approaches to construct scoring for monitoring functions were analyzed. Namely, logistic regression, Machine Learning, method grounded on tree created by the XGBoost algorithm. Last method demonstrated the best efficiency for scoring construction and can be developed for implementation. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Bank of Ukraine.
Auditing in the IT Environment: Discussion on Methodology
(2021) Ivakhnenkov, Sergiy
The problem of forming an integrated approach to the methodology of economic control (including audit and internal control) is considered in the article. Auditing in the IT environment and with the use of ІТ combines the features of social, natural, and exact sciences, and deals with research objects, which are conceptual systems, natural systems, and abstract systems. The structure of the method of economic control and audit is proposed. The audit method has a twodimensional (static and dynamic) and two-tier structure. At the general theoretical level, it includes 1) basic, general scientific theoretical techniques and approaches; 2) general research procedures inherent in auditing as an interdisciplinary field that combines research methodologies from natural, social, and exact sciences. At the applied (technological) level, the elements of the auditing method are control procedures and control technologies based on general scientific methods, approaches, and research procedures. The scientific procedure of audit and internal control is investigated and the methods based on the toolkit of exact sciences in conditions of ІТ application were proposed. The research method is arranged according to the selected objects. The techniques are grouped into three categories: a) techniques for collecting facts about physical characteristics; b) methods of thinking to gain understanding; c) modelling and programming. The identified facts are assessed and compared with the norm and an auditing result is formed, as well as in the direct implementation of corrective action.
Comparative Analysis of Current Trends in Wage Dynamics in Ukraine and in the European Union
(2019) Lukianenko, Iryna; Donkohlova, Tetiana
The purpose of the current research is the systematic analysis of the current state of the labor market in Ukraine in the context of the regional wage formation. Detailed literature reviews indicated lack of research on wage dynamics in Ukraine, which determines the relevance of the conducted study. During the research, the following methods have been used: general scientific methods of system analysis and synthesis; generalization, systematization, and grouping of data; modern statistical and mathematical instruments, in particular, methods of the system dynamics. Study results. The comprehensive empirical assessment of the wage dynamics revealed the presence of the significant gap in the labor market development between Ukraine and European countries. Similar findings were also confirmed by the estimation and realization of the elaborated system dynamic model of the Ukrainian labor market. Overall, there are several possible explanations of the occurred regional wage divergence in the labor market. On the one hand, it may be caused by the huge variation in housing costs between regions. The cost of living in metropolitan areas, innovation centers and business areas are much higher than in the periphery in Ukraine. On the other hand, not all factors are appeared to be mobile across regions. Moreover, it was also interesting to analyze structural changes in employment across all Ukrainian regions. Calculation of the CSC correlation value indicated that Ukrainian regions have experienced different scale of structural shifts in employment affected by macroeconomic and financial instability. Conclusions. An empirical assessment of the wage dynamics over the years and testing of the wage convergence hypothesis showed that EU members demonstrate income converging pattern: those with the lowest initial net income level (Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic states, Hungary, etc.) demonstrated the highest growth rate in wages. In contrary, regional wage analysis revealed that in Ukraine the highest growth rates are presented in the most industrially developed regions, such as Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk (before ATO), Mykolaiv, etc. Such the pattern is called wage divergence and it is not a favorable phenomenon in the context of the sustainable regional development of the country. This trend only exacerbates existing internal imbalances in the regional development of Ukraine: highly developed regions and agglomeration continue to develop at a rapid pace, while the periphery is in a situation of economic and demographic stagnation. Consequently, the main goals of the state policy in the field of labor market stabilization should be enhancing wage bargaining by efficient activity of the trade unions; advanced revision of the tax legislation in order to formalize the shadow share of the labor market; the reduction of unemployment through the efficient use of labor resources and the creation of new jobs, which will favorably contribute to the country’s economic growth in the future
The Competitive Position of the Company : The Contradictions of Essence and New Approaches
(2020) Synytsya, Maksym
This paper analyses some key definitions and ideas of brand positioning among scientists for the recent 40 years. There are a lot of contradictions in the meaning of this concept that complicates the development of the firms’ full-scope positioning strategy and creates confusions in scientific studies. The paper attempts to describe the importance of a complex approach to competitive positioning of the enterprise which relies not only on marketing positioning of its products or itself but also on positioning relative to competitors and current (or possible) employees. It is also shown that behavioral factors (including cultural variations) should be considered in the positioning strategy. The article proposes a comprehensive approach to the classification of positioning strategies based on the systematization of criteria for creating excellent characteristics of a product, brand, and enterprise. The paper concludes with several suggestions on the modern view of the competitive positioning concept, where the subject of competitive positioning was not only the product but also the enterprise that produces it. As a result of this research, it is proposed to join competitors and employees of the company to the objects of competitive positioning, which would result in the emergence of the concept of behavioral competitive positioning.
Conceptual Frameworks of the Development of Banking and Insurance Interaction in Modern Conditions
(2021) Bazilinska, Olena; Panchenko, Olena
The purpose of the article is to reveal conceptual frameworks for further development of the banking and insurance interaction in order to ensure the growth of the value of banking and insurance business on account of the more effective use of their potentials and opportunities. It is noted in the article that banking and insurance interaction is manifested as the provision of insurance services through banking institutions – Banсassurance, the provision of banking services through insurance companies – Assurbanking, the provision of integrated services within financial conglomerates – Allfinanz. In the course of the research, it was determined that the banking channel for the sale of insurance services is the most efficient, and Bancassurance is a system of insurance services sale through the extensive banking network. The necessity and importance of the Bancassurance development, which is actively used in all developed countries, but differs in scale, methods, organizational forms and final financial results, is revealed. This is especially relevant in the context of reforming the regulatory bodies of the state financial market. Within the study, the advantages and disadvantages of Bancassurance and the prerequisites for its development are revealed. Particular attention is paid to the requirements to insurance companies in the process of the Bancassurance implementation. It is noted within the article that the interaction of banks and insurance companies can be carried out at different levels, from the level of the cooperation agreement, agency agreement, banking and insurance cooperation, to the level of the corporate control through the mechanism of mergers and acquisitions and financial supermarket. Within the study the conclusions are made that further development of banking and insurance interaction is conceptually aimed at increasing the role of commercial banks and the formation of "financial supermarkets", in which each customer can meet the needs of bank services, financial consulting, and insurance.
Conceptual Modelling of Organizations
(2016) Maltsev, Eduard
The article offers an approach to the modelling of organizations that uses three types of representation: behavioural, normative and conceptual. This approach allows to create meaningful organizational models that adequately represent the complexity of modern organizations and may be useful in the management system development and strategic decision-making.
Consumer Lending in Banks: System Dynamics Modelling
(2019) Kaminskyy, Аndriy; Petrovskyi, Oleksii
Modern consumer lending, which is carried out by banks, financial companies, and, to a lesser extent, credit unions, is a complex system. This system includes many blocks that interact with each other and affect the result. As a result of their interaction in dynamics, the values of indicators of effectiveness are formed. The task that arises is to identify the mutual dependency of the constituent units and their influence on the result of consumer lending over time. The aim of the article is to model consumer lending processes using system dynamics methods. The model proposed in the paper by the system of dynamics makes it possible to display the behaviour of the consumer lending system over time. To display the logic of the system, we used the causal loop diagram tool. This made it possible to visualize the consumer credit system taking into account interconnections. The system is structured into blocks that characterise the main components of the functioning of the lending system. When building the model, four important units of the system were analyzed: technological rating, marketing funding, marketing strategy, and risk management. For this, a simulative analysis was applied. Based on this, it is shown that the marginal results are quite different. The ways are provided to optimize priority of expenses. The dependency of income management has a specific non-linear form. It is possible to find out the level of rigidity of risk management by using simulation analysis.
Customer Centric Marketing Strategy for Universities
(2018) Voropai, Olga
The purpose of the paper is to analyze the ways of using a customer centric approach to develop a marketing strategy for universities. Customer centricity is defined as the university marketing strategy that implies unique intra-disciplinary and interdisciplinary studies, bringing into line individual students’ experiences and capabilities with changing the market place and job opportunities. The main forces that urge higher education institutions to change the core of their marketing strategy are characterized; namely, MOOC development and eliminated geographical barriers that stimulate students’ mobility. Further, four important directions of customer centricity are described, depending on the role the students and other university target audiences play in the process: the customers being the source of sustainable competitive advantage; customers as the source of information for the company; customers as the source of information for other representatives of the target audience; customers as employees and value co-creators. Universities need to revise their marketing mix, implementing consumer-oriented elements and reducing students’ risks and expenses. Students should also be an essential part of the university’s integrated marketing communications as the source of relevant information for target audiences. In addition, the role of students in value co-creation needs significant expansion. Customer-centricity in this case will no longer be limited to the use of individual elements without significant positive effects, but it will ensure obtaining a long-term competitive advantage in the education market. In a world of life-long learners it will not only assist in completing singular transactions with first-year students but also ensure repeated “purchases” among alumni.
Debt Resilience Dynamics : Exploring Vulnerability of Macrosystem
(2020) Hryhoriev, Hennadii
The article on the contemporary approach analysis of sovereign debt reveals the basic structures of national economy alternative financing. The methodology of system dynamics is applied to explain the sovereign debt burden pressure feedback process. The main effects of resilience to external shocks are explored. The problem of dynamic balancing between long-term economic development and short-term financial stability is detected. The analysis for borrowing capacity of the national economy is explored using the system dynamics methods. The resource curse "vicious cycle" should be overridden by increasing total factor productivity and decreasing sovereign debt. The main findings of the article concern the nonlinear relationships in the national economic debt system and reveal the issues of the sovereign debt trap enhanced by the resource type of economic development. The model developed in this article reflects the main role of innovations (total factor productivity growth) in coming out of the “resource curse” debt trap. The hypothesis that sovereign debt can be eliminated arises from the possibility of autonomous national economic development and endogenous business cycle stabilization. Such a point of view allows to capture the important interrelationships between the national economic development and external borrowings due to the concept of policy resistance implementation. It is indicated that the complex systems modeling likelihood to develop the sovereign debt policy for demonstration of the negative impact of debt trap on economic development. In order to achieve the results, issued in the article, a basic control loop model was developed using reference mode data with appropriate initial structure model construction.
Digital Economy : Impact on the Socio-economic Transformation in Ukraine
(2020) Chala, Nina; Poplavska, Oksana
Having studied the subject matter of Digital economy as a phenomenon, the authors came to the conclusion that it should be considered as a manufacturing and economic system; it is implemented in conditions of redundancy and availability of information, possessing the features of the knowledge economy. Having identified the key role of the state – improving the quality of human resources and increasing the social responsibility of business and society, the authors recommend estimating the impact of Digital economy on the labor market and socio-labor relations in terms of maintaining social security and meeting the development criteria of Economy 4.0. The suggested criteria include economic viability; involvement in the digital economy and knowledge economy; social security; transparency; sustainability. Having identified and estimated the social challenges, the authors noted the most acute, among them, the lack of staff with necessary expertise.
Does culture influence online customer engagement of university stakeholders: pandemic perspective
(2022) Voropai, Olga; Pichyk, Kateryna; Chala, Nina
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased the role of social media in the communication policy of educational institutions. Ensuring the effective use of social networks to communicate with target audiences requires universities to understand, among other things, the importance of cultural context for the audience’s engagement. We analyzed the engagement rates (ER) in Facebook and Instagram for the most influential universities in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries to determine the influence of the country’s cultural characteristics. The study examines two hypotheses. H1: Stakeholders in collectivist cultures with a high level of power distance are more likely to increase online engagement when limited in offline communication. H2: High uncertainty avoidance countries with long-term orientation will demonstrate broader social media engagement. The results showed that the dynamics of stakeholder activity in the social networks Facebook and Instagram for the most influential universities in the Eastern Partnership countries do not depend on the country’s cultural profile. Thus, we can conclude that universities can expand their presence in the digital communication space while addressing representatives of their target audiences from different countries without differentiating their communication messages. The study results also indicate the prospects for expanding remote students’ mobility programs as they will not require different approaches to effective digital communication.
Empirical Estimation of Monetary Policy Ifluence on Stock Exchange Indicators
(2018) Lukianenko, Iryna; Sova, Y.
The purpose of the current research is to conduct the empirical analysis and develop adequate econometric instruments for estimation of the relationship between monetary indicators and stock exchange indices in order to determine the effective instruments for stock exchange market development in the short and long runs. During the research the following methods have been used: general scientific methods of system analysis and synthesis; generalization, systematization and grouping of data; modern economic and mathematical instruments, in particular, methods of vector autoregression. Study results. The conducted statistical analysis and the realization of developed econometric VAR/ VECM models using the real data allowed us to estimate the potential capability of state regulators to influence the development of stock exchanges in different groups of countries as well as to develop the most effective monetary instruments of stock exchange stimulation while taking into account internal and external risks in the short and long runs. The results of this research paper can be used when making management decisions by state regulators on the ways of stimulation of stock exchanges development in different groups of countries, in particular Ukraine. Conclusions. Based on the conducted research using the system of developed VAR/VECM models, it was empirically proven that the central bank and other regulators can actually influence stock exchange indices using monetary instruments, but this influence is only significant on the markets of developed countries (e.g., the USA). However, in developing countries the stock exchange index does not depend on short-term changes of monetary indicators, which decreases the power of regulators to affect the stock exchange indices. At the same time, stock exchange indices are significant factors that influence monetary indicators not only in developed countries (the USA) but also in developing ones (Ukraine, Poland). Taking into consideration the results of the current research, it can be deduced that the economy of Ukraine is still in the transition phase and is characterized by significant political and economic risks, while the monetary policy of the regulator is rather an ineffective instrument to control and regulate the capital markets. In addition, the development of stock exchange markets has a positive impact on macroeconomic indicators of the developing economy. That is why the development of the effective and liquid stock market is a highly important element of Ukrainian state economic policy, which can become one of the main factors of its economic growth in mid- and long runs.
Feebate System as an Alternative to Taxes in Environmental Regulation of Light Vehicle Transportation
(2019) Bui, Tetiana; Ploskina, Khrystyna
The article examines the problem of increasing air pollution from moving vehicles in Ukraine relying on the European experience of dealing with the problem. The System Dynamic method is used to build a feebate model to decrease the air pollution in Ukraine on the basis of P’HAPI framework. To lessen CO2 emissions, the authors introduce a feebate program that is the alternative to environmental taxes and fiscal ways to stimulate purchases of electric cars in Ukraine. The model suggests that fees for diesel, gasoline, or hybrid car are paid annually, whereas the rebate is paid once at the purchase time of a new pure electric vehicle. The feebate fund uses initial investment from government to launch its work; fees and interest earned are used to pay the rebates. The conducted analysis and the realization of System Dynamics model allowed to develop an effective programme that lasts 6 years from 2018 till 2024, increases the market share of electric cars, reduces the share of diesel and gasoline cars and results in significant decrease of the level of CO2 emissions and air pollution. Several important obstacles on the way to implement the policy are mentioned in the article, namely legislative, administrative, social, informational, and infrastructural. The results of this research can be used when making management decisions by state regulators. The feebate policy turned out to be promising as it offers an alternative to taxation and a perspective way to promote better environmental regulation in transportation.
Financial Decentralization and Fiscal Imbalance of Local Budgets in Ukraine
(2020) Bui, Tetiana; Kovalchuk, Oleksandra
The purpose of the article is to identify the correspondence between the revenue and expenditure parts of local budgets, which are responsible for the significant part of state expenditure financing due to financial decentralization reform. The article provides a comparative analysis of decentralization levels of local budgets in Ukraine and European countries by revenues and expenditures, as well as analyzes the structure of revenues and expenditures of the consolidated budget which include state and local budgets. The article notes that over the past ten years, the gap between revenue and expenditure has narrowed due to decentralization reform, but fiscal balance has not been achieved. The results of the analysis demonstrate the existence of a significant vertical imbalance in the budget system of Ukraine, which consists in the insufficiency of own and fixed financial resources of local authorities to ensure their powers. In terms of income decentralization, Ukraine ranks middle among Eastern European countries, while the level of expenditure decentralization corresponds to the level of Scandinavian countries, where the state plays an active role in income redistribution and has high institutional efficiency and high social standards. The article substantiates that the vertical imbalance exist due to the inefficient structure of local budgets’ revenues, in particular the high share of transfer payments from the state budget to local budgets, as well as the low share of own revenues, namely local taxes, in tax revenues. In order to strengthen the revenue side of local budgets and reduce vertical imbalances it is proposed to increase the tax base of local taxes through development of business and welfare in the regions, to increase the share of deductions from corporate tax and personal income tax to local budgets, to improve the control over local budget revenues and to optimize local expenditures, including social protection and social security expenditures. As the practice of foreign countries with decentralized budget systems shows, the elimination of vertical imbalances leads to a significant increase in the fiscal capacity of the regions.
Financial integration and macroeconomic sustainability: a sector approach to access to finance and the pre-crisis growth model
(2016) Atanasijevic, Jasna; Najman, Boris
We analyze the determinants of financial constraints in 18 transition countries in Europe on a dataset from the enterprise level survey provided by EBRD in four turns from 2002 to 2008. All these countries had in common the fact that prior to the crisis they had based their growth model on financial integration (EBRD, 2009). Examining in depth the financing obstacle to business may bring some genuine answers on financial development and its effects on the growth of the real sector. The main result of the empirical estimation using the probit methodology is that a higher probability of financial constraint exists for a manufacturing enterprises in contrast to other industries. Besides an increased probability of facing access to finance as a very severe business obstacle, the estimation also reveals that manufacturing firms have more need for loans. In addition, the firms not using bank loans are more prone to state high interest rates and non-favorable non-price loan terms as reasons for not using external financing. This finding inspired us to formulate a more general hypothesis on the role of the financial sector in the macroeconomic effects of the applied development model in transition economies during the period before the crisis. Namely, two decades of uneven access to finance by manufacturing businesses (producing tradable goods) resulted in structural imbalances in the real sector that reflected in trade deficit, i.e. the underdeveloped tradable sector and the overdeveloped non-tradable.
Financial stability and independence of municipalities in Ukraine
(2022) Bui, Tetiana; Zenchenko, Anastasiia
The article assesses the local budgets independence using statistiсal methods and includes system dynamics research with a simplified explanatory model of aggregated municipal deposits. Using the method of analytical equalization, the share of local budgets’ own funds was calculated, as they are a source of financial stability and independence. A system dynamics hypothesis and model revealed important feedback mechanisms that play a role in financial autonomy and general financial well-being of municipalities – a higher deficit drives a higher debt that drives a higher deficit back; lower local tax revenues will bring higher transfers in the upcoming year; negative population growth decreases consumption, labor force, and other indicators, etc. The general reason for low financial autonomy lies in high dependency on transfers and income-based taxes, while taxes that are classified as local lay on businesses, which need more support. Some aspects revealed the need for deeper research and addition to the model – municipal borrowing and property markets. The model has been validated and built confidence through various tests, but yet it has serious assumptions, limitations, and aspects outside of the model boundary. Nevertheless the model has a potential for expansion and solving mode issues regarding this system or to be recalibrated for specific reasons and areas. The research can be used by the municipalities in Ukraine and needs to be updated with new data and expanded.
Fiscal Mechanism of Unshadowing of the Economy of Ukraine
(2018) Bazilinska, Olena; Panchenko, N.
Under current circumstances, the imperfect conditions of economic activity, which are formed in the country, have a significant influence on the macroeconomic situation. As a result, the economically unreasonable tax legislation, aimed at instantaneous replenishment of the budget, leads to an excessive tax burden on the real sector of the economy and the formation of its shadow segment. The use of shadow transactions to conceal the tax revenue is a manifestation of deeper processes of redistribution of the gross domestic product in favour of the shadow economy and requires active measures aimed at improving the tax system. The main objective of the article is to consider a way to improve the existing fiscal mechanism by identifying the main reasons for the implementation of shadow operations and the transmission features, as well as to determine the directions of increasing the influence of the fiscal mechanism on reducing the shadow sector of the economy. The article reveals the influence of the fiscal mechanism on the unshadowing of the economy through the formation of a fiscal transmission in the Ukrainian economy as a process of successive transfer of impulses of the fiscal policy of the state, reflecting the relationship between tax instruments and business activity in the real sector. The main channels of fiscal transmission are five types of taxes that are defined by the Tax Code of Ukraine: corporate profit tax, income tax, value added tax, excise tax and duty. Each tax becomes a transmission channel of the fiscal impulse in the process of determining its main components and due to their transmission; a positive effect of unshadowing in the short run is achieved. However, to do this, support for the fiscal impulse should be ensured through changes in related areas of activity and the efficient management of taxation, which includes monitoring of the indicators of the taxpayers activities, performance by the fiscal authorities explanatory work of the tax legislation and introducing an effective tax administration system.
Government Debt of Ukraine: Tendencies and Consequences
(2018) Slaviuk, N.
Government debt is an ordinary phenomenon in the world economy. Government debt can be a source of investment and can influence the economic development. However, at the same time it can be a burden for the economy. It is proved that in case of financial instability, countries are forced to borrow on the internal and external financial markets, which can influence the economic stability. What is the case for Ukraine? This paper considers the current tendencies of the government debt of Ukraine. It examines the indicators of government indebtedness and their impact on the economy. The state and structure of the government debt of Ukraine have been analyzed. The results show the existence of a range of risks that can influence the economic development in Ukraine. The risks of high amounts of external government borrowings, the increase of state-guaranteed debt, ineffective usage of borrowed resources, and lack of control have been analyzed. The article presents propositions for the debt management improvement in Ukraine. The importance of government debt of Ukraine decrease has been proved. The propositions to cut the official level of government indebtedness has been expressed. Government borrowings can be an effective instrument for the development of the economy and the infrastructure development, but only on condition of effective usage and maintenance of a limited amount of government indebtedness.
Inflation Expectations Modeling: The Application of Markov Switching Autoregression
(2020) Lukianenko, Iryna; Nasachenko, Mariia
The shift of the monetary policy framework in Ukraine has led to the transformation of the power of the key transmission channels. Inflation targeting (IT) assumes the interest rates channel as the main one; besides that, since the exchange rate is floating, the influence from the key policy rate change on it is stronger and more effective. Implementation of the IT at the end of 2016 significantly affected the prices; in particular, the inflation has slowed down from almost 60 % in the corresponding month of the previous year to 2.3 % in 2020. Specifically, the interaction between the key policy rate, which is the main monetary policy instrument under the IT, consumer prices, and economic growth has changed. One of the important channels is the inflation expectations channel that became influential after IT has started. Consequently, the article is aimed to investigate how inflation expectations are dependent on the inflation dynamics, the key policy rate changes, and the index of the real wage fluctuations applying Markov switching autoregression model with two regimes, which is widely used to estimate the effects of economic crisis, break of the trend, and instability. The developed model consists of two equations, one of which defines a regime with the high volatility, and the other with the low. The obtained results show the dominance of the high volatility regime during almost all the research period because of essential inflation uncertainty and the overall unstable situation in the country caused by the crisis. Additionally, probability to stay in the first regime is much higher than in the second and is equal to 91 %. Outcomes from the modelling allow to judge about the future inflation and inflation expectations dynamics based on discovered new features. The further steps in the evaluation of effects of monetary policy regimes shift are expansion of the model to three- or four-regime switch (high, low, moderate volatility, etc.), the use of additional independent variables, experiments with the key policy rate, and inflation as dependent variables.

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