Financial Policy of Ukraine for the Maintenance of Macroeconomic Stability
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Item Conclusions to chapter 1(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Lukianenko, IrynaIn the proposed study, the theoretical and methodological foundations of macroeconomic stability and its crucial component - financial stability - are examined. A list of endogenous and exogenous factors influencing financial stability is provided, parameters of macroeconomic and macro-financial stability are determined, and benchmarks for effective management of the national economy are substantiated. The study also explores the activities of the Financial Stability Council of Ukraine, the "Strategy for the Development of the Financial Sector of Ukraine," and the proposed "Post-War Macroeconomic Architecture for Ukraine."Item Inflation targeting as the main tool of monetary policy(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Tomilina, Mariia; Veremiienko, Vitalii; Primierova, OlenaInflation targeting (IT) is currently one of the most popular monetary policy frameworks in both advanced and emerging economies. As of 2023, more than 70 central banks around the world have adopted it in some form, including the US Federal Reserve System, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England.Item The monetary policy experience during the war and post-war periods(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Tomilina, Mariia; Primierova, OlenaDuring a crisis, the objectives of a monetary policy shift to address the unique challenges presented by a military economy. In such an economy, government expenditure rises, and the state's role in the economy becomes more prominent. Furthermore, economic decisions are dominated by security concerns, and the economic multiplier effect is limited due to the destruction caused by war. If we look at the Federal Reserve System of the U.S. when World War II outbroke, the challenges for dealing with a considerable surge in the federal deficit due to increased war expenditures occurred even though the Treasury was depended more on taxes than it was during World War I and even with the rise in tax revenue due to the significant growth in industrial production.Item Evaluation of the effectiveness of monetary policy in Ukraine(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Veremiienko, Vitalii; Primierova, OlenaThroughout the war period, the NBU's monetary policy was adaptive, focusing on crisis management and the stabilization of the financial system while laying the groundwork for post-conflict economic recovery. The unique challenges posed by the war necessitated a departure from conventional monetary policy practices, emphasizing the need for flexibility and responsiveness in central banking during times of crisis. Based on the information provided above, Ukraine followed a similar path to other countries when the NBU chose to peg the exchange rate of hryvnia to USD during the onset of the invasion. This move was made by the regulator to maintain stability in economic agents' expectations and thereby ensure macro-financial stability during the war. In addition, the fixed exchange rate played a vital role in controlling inflation.Item Recommendations for enhancing monetary policy interventions to achieve macroeconomic stability in Ukraine over the medium term(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Nasachenko, Mariia; Primierova, OlenaMonetary policy constitutes a pivotal instrument of economic governance, enabling the regulation of inflation levels, ensuring the stability of the financial system, and supporting sustainable economic growth. However, the implementation of monetary policy amidst macroeconomic instability presents unique characteristics and poses a complex task for central banks and other state authorities. A notable challenge is that macroeconomic instability diminishes the effectiveness of monetary policy. For instance, in a recessionary context, increasing the discount rate does not yield the anticipated effect of reducing inflation and diminishing investment activity. Furthermore, a higher policy key rate can augment the risk of insolvency for households and businesses.Item Conclusions to chapter 2(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Lukianenko, IrynaIt has been determined that in case of favorable and stable macroeconomic conditions, a moderate liberalization of financial markets and return to an inflation targeting regime and a floating exchange rate are important. The necessity of continuing technological development of financial services as a prerequisite for further expansion of financial inclusion and ensuring cybersecurity is also substantiated. Important measures also include the restoration of financial infrastructure in de-occupied territories, ensuring accessibility and inclusiveness of the financial sector. Additionally, for Ukraine, the development of financial markets is a crucial task, as they play a significant role in determining the level of interest rates and credit conditions, which affects the size of investments, expenditures of enterprises and citizens, and overall economic development of the country. The development of financial markets entails creating effective financial instruments, such as stocks, bonds, derivatives, and others, allowing for the attraction of more capital and creating favorable conditions for doing business in Ukraine. Furthermore, the creation of financial instruments will help reduce risk for investors and enable the attraction of funds for long-term investments in Ukraine. Directions for the development of financial markets include the advancement of the banking system, securities market, stock market, insurance market, pension market, and derivatives market. Successful development of financial markets in Ukraine can enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and positively impact the development of the real sector of the economy.Item The essence and classification of the exchange rate regimes(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Slaviuk, NataliiaThe exchange rate plays a crucial role in the system of national settlements. In Ukraine, the exchange rate is formed on the interbank market. The Central bank can influence the demand and supply of foreign currency through interventions. According to the definition from the Corporate Finance Institute, an exchange rate is a amount at which one currency can be exchanged for another between countries or economic zones. This rate is important to define trade and capital dynamics of the flow and the values of currencies to each other. This rate influences trade conditions and movement of the capital between the countries-trading partners.Item Exchange rate of Ukraine: tendencies and problems(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Slaviuk, NataliiaIn this section, the main dynamics of the exchange rate of the Ukrainian national currency, the hryvnia, will be considered. From 1996 to 2014 the exchange rate regime in Ukraine was fixed, from 2014 to March 2022 - floating, and after the start of a full-scale war (24.02.2022) since March 2022 to October 2023 - fixed. In October 2023 National Bank of Ukraine announced change of the exchange rate to the managed floating.Item Exploring the relationship between exchange rate dynamics and trade competitiveness of Ukraine(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Mordas, Olena; Slaviuk, NataliiaThe main relationship between exchange rate dynamics and trade competitiveness of Ukraine is represented by Vector Autoregressive model (VAR). This model is based on the reproduction of the dynamics of the time series based on its historical values, and long-term memory of series. Thus, a feature of these models is a high empirical level. Since it was important to investigate the short-term forecast and analyze the relationships between the variables, therefore, the VAR model was chosen. Let's move on to the first stage of building the model - data selection and preparation.Item Influence of the exchange rate policy on trade competitiveness of the country(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Mordas, Olena; Slaviuk, NataliiaIt is worth starting with the fact that, according to the authors, in the post-war period, the optimal exchange rate policy is to return to a floating currency regime in future. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the National Bank was forced to fix the course in order to avoid panic and support the economy and financial activity of the country. Such actions had a positive result in the first months of the war. However, in the long term, fixing the exchange rate will lead to deepening of the country's economic problems. Thus, the exchange rate of the dollar is an indicator of the purchasing power of the population, the level of competitiveness of goods of national producers, inflationary expectations, etc. In the conditions of a fixed foreign currency regime, there is an accumulation of economic imbalances that are not reflected in the dynamics of the exchange rate.Item Conclusions to chapter 3(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Lukianenko, IrynaAny crisis has a negative impact on the strength of the national currency. Therefore, a balanced exchange rate policy ensures the supporting effect of the national currency, and in particular, the position of national producers (export and import facilities). Currency interventions are a crucial means to influence the volatility of the foreign exchange market. There exist different types of currency regulation regimes, each with its own set of pros and cons. Selecting the appropriate currency regime involves considering various factors such as the characteristics of the domestic financial market, the level of economic growth, and the country's overall development. In times of crisis such as during a war, fixing the exchange rate is often the most appropriate solution.Item Defining financial dollarization: approaches to assessment and categorization(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Slaviuk, NataliiaFinancial dollarization is a phenomenon in which a foreign currency, most often the US dollar, is used for financial transactions and is held as a store of value in place of the national currency. It can be present in various forms, including deposit dollarization (DD), loan dollarization (LD), and portfolio dollarization. The measurement and classification of financial dollarization have been an ongoing topic of interest for economists and policymakers, as high levels of dollarization can negatively affect the financial system's stability and the monetary policy's effectiveness. Various methods of assessing the degree of financial dollarization include ratio analysis, regression analysis, and portfolio optimization models. Additionally, financial dollarization can be classified based on its source, such as natural or induced dollarization, as well as its duration, whether it is short-term or long-term.Item Investigating the dynamics and structural characteristics of financial dollarization in Ukraine(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Orlovska, Oleksandra; Slaviuk, NataliiaThe financial sector is a critical component of the economy, and its stability plays a crucial role in the economic development of a country. One of the significant concerns for policymakers is the degree of financial dollarization, particularly in emerging economies. Ukraine is such an economy where the level of dollarization in the banking system has been a persistent issue, impacting its economic stability and growth prospects.Item Modeling and analysis of financial dollarization phenomena(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Orlovska, Oleksandra; Slaviuk, NataliiaFinancial dollarization, or the use of foreign currency for deposits and loans, is a significant issue for many economies, as it can lead to increased volatility and risks to financial stability. To better understand and analyze the drivers and consequences of dollarization, econometric models are often used. These models offer a systematic approach to understanding the drivers and consequences of dollarization by quantifying the relationships between various economic variables. Econometric models can simulate different scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of potential policy interventions aimed at reducing dollarization levels, such as changes in monetary policy or regulatory adjustments. So, by leveraging such econometric models, policymakers, researchers, and financial analysts can gain deeper insights into the phenomenon of dollarization, devise strategies to manage its effects, and make informed decisions to enhance economic stability and performance.Item De-dollarization policies and prospects for the de-dollarization of the Ukrainian economy(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Slaviuk, NataliiaDe-dollarization policies are becoming increasingly important for many countries as they seek to reduce their dependence on foreign currencies and promote economic stability. While the specific strategies for de-dollarization may vary, it is generally recognized that reducing dollarization can help countries avoid financial crises and currency shocks. However, the success of de-dollarization policies can depend on a range of factors, such as the strength of a country's financial institutions, the degree of public trust in the national currency, and the effectiveness of government policies in promoting alternative investment options. Therefore, it is important for policymakers to carefully consider the various approaches to dedollarization and choose those that are most likely to be successful in their specific economic and political context.Item Conclusions to chapter 4(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Lukianenko, IrynaIn this Chapter analysis on financial dollarization in Ukraine was conducted. The overall dollarization of economy is difficult to measure due to limited control over cash transactions, it can be classified also between financial dollarization and real dollarization, which covers the use of foreign currencies by the real sector in forms of wages nominated in foreign currency, rents, and consumption, etc. Deposit and loan dollarization serves as a pretty accurate proxy for analysis of financial dollarization. Conducted analysis of the available literature revealed high emphasis on deposit dollarization, especially in terms of undeveloped financial markets.Item Understanding the essence of the state budget and budget deficit(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Galytska, Eleonora; Nesterenko, Anastasiia; Lukianenko, IrynaState budget plays an important role in the state finances. It ensures distribution of financial resources inside the country, performs a social function, is the source of financing defense, security of the country, development of important for the society spheres, such as education, medical care, public order, culture, and administrative services.Item Analysis of the expenditures of the state budget of Ukraine(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Lukianenko, IrynaFor many years, the budget system of Ukraine has been characterized by instability and constant reforms, budget deficits, a significant amount of national debt, and imperfections in intergovernmental relations (Figure 5.1). In 2014-2015, after a major budget crisis triggered by military actions in the east, reforms in the budgetary system and relations began.Item Assessment of the sources and magnitude of income in Ukraine's state budget(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Lukianenko, IrynaIt is important to pay attention, that in 2022 the income of the state budget amounted to 115,1 % of the approved by the Parliament in the beginning of the year, the excess amounted to 234 billion UAH [12]. In the conditions of war government was searching for new income. At the same time, the amount of the biggest article of income- tax income in comparison to 2021 decreased for 14,21%. If the part of tax income in the general structure of the budget amounted to 85% in 2021, so in 2022 it accounted only 53%.Item Budget deficit management and budget-balancing strategies(Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2023) Lukianenko, IrynaAn important element of fiscal policy is the timely response to economic cycles, the prevention of economic crises, adherence to maximum limits for the budget deficit and public debt. Issues of medium-term and strategic budget planning hold priority importance. Formulating a long-term strategy and identifying target areas is crucial. However, given the limited budget funds, it is necessary to determine the priority areas of financing to ensure the functions of the state and the socioeconomic development of the country [4]. Managing a budget deficit and developing strategies to balance a budget are crucial aspects of fiscal policy, particularly for governments aiming to maintain financial stability and promote economic growth.