How Trade Composition Affects Sensitivity to Foreign Shocks: Applying a Global VAR Model to Ukraine

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorFaryna, Oleksandr
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-15T09:50:37Z
dc.date.available2020-10-15T09:50:37Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractThis paper studies the transmission of foreign output shocks to real activity in Ukraine through international trade. We employ a global vector auto regressive (GVAR) model that captures about 80% of the world economy and incorporates time-varying trade and financial weights. According to our estimates, a mild recession in the US of a 1% drop in output generates a substantial recession in Ukraine of about 2.2%. A similar drop of output in the euro area and Russia translates to a drop in output of about 1.7% in Ukraine. Finally, the same drop of output in CEE, China, or the CIS leads to an output decline of about 0.4% in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s response to euro area output shock has been steadily increasing over the last couple of decades due to changes in global trade flows. Ukraine’s sensitivity to shocks in the US and euro area is notably strengthened by indirect trade effects, while the response to shocks from emerging economies, i.e., China, CEE, the CIS, and partially Russia, is mainly determined by bilateral trade linkages.en_US
dc.identifier.citationFaryna O. How Trade Composition Affects Sensitivity to Foreign Shocks: Applying a Global VAR Model to Ukraine / Oleksandr Faryna, Heli Simola // Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine. - 2019. - No. 247. - Р. 4-18.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2019.247.01
dc.identifier.urihttps://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/handle/123456789/18164
dc.language.isoenuk_UA
dc.relation.sourceVisnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine.en_US
dc.statusfirst publisheduk_UA
dc.subjectUkraineen_US
dc.subjectglobal VARen_US
dc.subjectforeign shocksen_US
dc.subjecttrade compositionsen_US
dc.subjectarticleen_US
dc.titleHow Trade Composition Affects Sensitivity to Foreign Shocks: Applying a Global VAR Model to Ukraineen_US
dc.typeArticleuk_UA
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Faryna_How_Trade_Composition_Affects_Sensitivity_to_Foreign_Shocks.pdf
Size:
1.83 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
7.54 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Кафедра фінансів
Лабораторія фінансово-економічних досліджень