An approach to modeling elections in bipartisan democracies on the base of the "state-probability of action" model
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Date
2024
Authors
Dosyn, Dmytro
Oletsky, Oleksiy
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Abstract
An approach to constructing the two-level behavioral "state-probability of action" model and to getting appropriate matrices "state-probability of choice" for the case of two competing alternatives has been suggested. The top level is directly connected to probabilities of choice between alternatives. States of the model are connected to grades of pairwise comparisons. For getting rows of the matrix on this basis transitive scales are offered to be applied, but not only. It appears important to distinguish values of preferences themselves and probabilities of choice related to them. For this reason, another parameter standing for decisiveness of agents has been introduced. The bottom level is related to separate criteria influencing a choice. A way to applying such a model for modeling voting in a bipartisan democracy has been suggested. Within this context, a problem of equilibrium between two alternatives, when no alternative has advantages over the other, is of great importance. Some sufficient conditions for equilibrium between two alternatives have been postulated in the paper, they significantly rely upon properties of symmetry. The illustrating example of modeling elections in an imaginary country has been provided. Voters in this example are to make a choice between two candidates on the base of comparing them by some given criteria. In the initial example the equilibrium between alternatives holds. Then an issue how agents of influence could change the situation in a desirable direction is discussed.
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Keywords
decision making, agent-based modeling, model "state-probability of action", equilibrium between alternatives, social modeling, bipartisan democracy, voting, agents of influence, сonference materials
Citation
Dosyn D. An approach to modeling elections in bipartisan democracies on the base of the "state-probability of action" model / Dmytro Dosyn, Oleksiy Oletsky // CEUR Workshop Proceedings. - 2024. - Vol. 3723. - Р. 74-85.