Проблеми управління бюджетним дефіцитом для забезпечення фінансової безпеки України
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Date
2014
Authors
Лук'яненко, Ірина
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Abstract
Проведено аналіз особливостей управління бюджетним дефіцитом в Україні. Досліджено основні ризики існування тривалого бюджетного дефіциту для фінансової безпеки країни. Визначено та кількісно оцінено на основі системи симультативних рівнянь взаємозв’язки бюджетного дефіциту й основних інструментів монетарної політики. Запропоновано напрями скорочення темпів його зростання в умовах економічної кризи для забезпечення фінансової безпеки держави та досягнення макроекономічної стабільності.
Description
Проведен анализ особенностей управления бюджетным дефицитом в Украине. Исследованы основные риски существования длительного бюджетного дефицита для финансовой безопасности страны. Определена и количественно оценена на основе системы симультативных уравнений взаимосвязь бюджетного дефицита и основных инструментов монетарной политики. Предложены пути снижения темпов его роста в условиях экономического кризиса для обеспечения финансовой безопасности и макроэкономической стабильности.
The creation of the continuous budget deficit, especially for the emerging countries, including Ukraine, significantly influence economic stability and security. This lead to the necessity of the search of the appropriate methods of the quantitative estimation of such influence for the major macroeconomic indicators and the new approaches of the administration and regulation of the budget deficit for smoothing financial and economic fluctuations and prevention of the development of the financial crisis in short and long run. The purpose of this article is to investigate the risk of the continuous budget deficit creation for the economic and financial security of Ukrainian economy, to detect and estimate it influense on the major macroeconomic indicators using econometric models, to identify the main problems of the lack of the budget deficit regulation, to propose the solution of such problems and develop the directions of the possible reduction of the budget deficit growth rate for ukrainian economy in short and long run. To perform the tasks of the research the features of the regulations of the budget deficit for different periods of economic development of Ukraine were analysed, departure the main indicators of the financial security from their critical levels were defined, the simultaneous equations model for formalization of the relationships among budget deficit and main macroeconomic indicators was build, the scenario analysis for different possible situations on the base of estimated model was elaborated and investigated. The received results confirme the serious risk for the financial security of the country and the need of the measures for the reduction of the budget deficit growth rate for ukrainian economy in short and long run. For this is necessary to introduce the 3-5 years planning and forecasting of the budget indicators; optimization of the debt policy and it reorientation on the interior borrowing processі; continuous tax policy reformation; decreasing tax pressing on the small enterprises; reorientation of the signiificante part of the state expenditures into country infrastructure development and innovative projects implementation; providing the innovative and investment development of the country according European standards and policy; decentralization and creation of the incentives for local government; improvement of the pension reform etc.
The creation of the continuous budget deficit, especially for the emerging countries, including Ukraine, significantly influence economic stability and security. This lead to the necessity of the search of the appropriate methods of the quantitative estimation of such influence for the major macroeconomic indicators and the new approaches of the administration and regulation of the budget deficit for smoothing financial and economic fluctuations and prevention of the development of the financial crisis in short and long run. The purpose of this article is to investigate the risk of the continuous budget deficit creation for the economic and financial security of Ukrainian economy, to detect and estimate it influense on the major macroeconomic indicators using econometric models, to identify the main problems of the lack of the budget deficit regulation, to propose the solution of such problems and develop the directions of the possible reduction of the budget deficit growth rate for ukrainian economy in short and long run. To perform the tasks of the research the features of the regulations of the budget deficit for different periods of economic development of Ukraine were analysed, departure the main indicators of the financial security from their critical levels were defined, the simultaneous equations model for formalization of the relationships among budget deficit and main macroeconomic indicators was build, the scenario analysis for different possible situations on the base of estimated model was elaborated and investigated. The received results confirme the serious risk for the financial security of the country and the need of the measures for the reduction of the budget deficit growth rate for ukrainian economy in short and long run. For this is necessary to introduce the 3-5 years planning and forecasting of the budget indicators; optimization of the debt policy and it reorientation on the interior borrowing processі; continuous tax policy reformation; decreasing tax pressing on the small enterprises; reorientation of the signiificante part of the state expenditures into country infrastructure development and innovative projects implementation; providing the innovative and investment development of the country according European standards and policy; decentralization and creation of the incentives for local government; improvement of the pension reform etc.
Keywords
бюджетний дефіцит, фінансова безпека, симультативні системи рівнянь, макроекономічна стабільність, регулювання та управління бюджетним дефіцитом, математичне моделювання, стаття, бюджетный дефицит, финансовая безопасность, симультативные системы уравнений, макроэкономическая стабильность, регулирование и управление бюджетным дефицитом, математическое моделирование, budget deficit, financial security, simultaneous equation model, macroeconomic stability, administration and regulation of budget deficit
Citation
Лук'яненко І. Г. Проблеми управління бюджетним дефіцитом для забезпечення фінансової безпеки України / Лук'яненко І. Г. // Вісник ДДФА. Економічні науки. - 2014. - № 2. - С. 178-184.