Substantiating the Diffusion Model of Innovation Implementation and its Application to Vaccine Propagation
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Date
2022
Authors
Gorbachuk, Vasyl
Dunaievskyi, Maksym
Syrku, A.
Suleimanov, Seit-Bekir
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Volume Title
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Abstract
The paper examines prerequisites and assumptions of the classical Bass innovation diffusion model with the aim of applying it in modeling of relevant stochastic processes related to
the pandemic. The Bass model has proven its versatility and applicability to various environments. A thorough mathematical substantiation of the model properties is presented based on theories of evolutionary equations and stochastic processes for its further development, as well as search for uncertainty parameters and observable variables. The paper provides realistic estimation results of the Bass model parameters for vaccination in Ukraine and Belarus on weekly data of the first half of 2021. Similar studies are suggested for other countries, as well as regions and districts of Ukraine.
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Keywords
new product, critical mass, pandemic, marketing, healthcare, stochastic processes, article
Citation
Substantiating the Diffusion Model of Innovation Implementation and its Application to Vaccine Propagation / V. M. Gorbachuk, M. S. Dunaievskyi, A. A. Syrku, S.-B. Suleimanov // Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. - 2022. - Vol. 58, No.1. - P. 84-94. - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-022-00438-1