Інструментальний аналіз розриву ВВП в Україні
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Date
2018
Authors
Скрипниченко, Марія
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Abstract
На основі сучасних підходів побудови виробничої функції здійснено оцінку розриву ВВП (GDP gap) для української економіки (розрив між фактичним реальним
та потенційним ВВП) за період з 2000 р. по 2017 р., а також визначено поточну та прогнозну динаміку факторів, що істотно впливають на величину ВВП
України. За результатами декомпозиції розриву ВВП на складові виявлено
найвпливовіші чинники формування тренду економічного зростання в Україні.
Запропоновано модельний інструментарій для оцінки розриву ВВП за структурою розширеної виробничої функції з п'ятьма інтегральними показниками
як пояснювальними факторами ресурсного забезпечення (виробничого, людського, науково-технологічного, фінансового, зовнішньоекономічного).
Проведено інструментальний аналіз скорочення розриву ВВП, зокрема: через
зменшення безробіття, збільшення обсягів валового нагромадження основного
капіталу, подолання значних диспропорцій у рівнях реальної заробітної плати
та реальної продуктивності праці тощо.
Based on modern approaches to constructing a production function, the article estimates the GDP gap (the gap between actual real GDP and potential GDP) in the Ukrainian economy during the period from 2000 to 2017, as well as the current and forecasted dynamics of the factors making a significant impact on the size of Ukraine's GDP. On the results of the decomposition of the GDP gap, the authors identify the most influential factors shaping the trend of this country’s economic growth. The article proposes a model tool for estimating the GDP gap based on the structure of extended production function with five integral indicators as explanatory factors of resource provision (production, human, scientific-technological, financial, foreign, and economic). It is calculated that the gap of the potential GDP to the level of 1990, in the optimistic variant, can be overcome already in 2019–2020, although under the pessimistic scenario it will still amount to -11.6% in 2020, and in the baseline it will be reduced to -7.2%. The authors carry out a tool based analysis of the GDP gap reduction, in particular: with reduced unemployment, with increased volume of gross fixed capital formation, with an overcome of the significant real wage disparities and real labor productivity, etc. On the whole, the reduction of the "recession" GDP gap in Ukraine will be affected by: reduced unemployment (according to our calculations, the reduction in unemployment from 9.4% in 2017 to 9.2% in 2018 will result in a 0.1% reduction of the GDP); a considerable increase of the gross fixed capital formation (in the medium term, Ukraine should target at least 20% of GDP, and in the long run - up to 25%), which will facilitate the transition of the Ukrainian economy to the modernization mode; a gradual increase in real wages both due to rising nominal wages and lower inflation (wage growth rates in real terms should correspond to the real growth rates of labor productivity); and an increase in the aggregate level of labor productivity, first of all, due to intensified innovation. According to our calculations, an increase in R&D expenditures from 0.6% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP in 2017 would reduce the GDP gap by more than a half. Overcoming the gap in GDP should become an important constructive component of the economic development of Ukraine's economy in the medium and long term.
Based on modern approaches to constructing a production function, the article estimates the GDP gap (the gap between actual real GDP and potential GDP) in the Ukrainian economy during the period from 2000 to 2017, as well as the current and forecasted dynamics of the factors making a significant impact on the size of Ukraine's GDP. On the results of the decomposition of the GDP gap, the authors identify the most influential factors shaping the trend of this country’s economic growth. The article proposes a model tool for estimating the GDP gap based on the structure of extended production function with five integral indicators as explanatory factors of resource provision (production, human, scientific-technological, financial, foreign, and economic). It is calculated that the gap of the potential GDP to the level of 1990, in the optimistic variant, can be overcome already in 2019–2020, although under the pessimistic scenario it will still amount to -11.6% in 2020, and in the baseline it will be reduced to -7.2%. The authors carry out a tool based analysis of the GDP gap reduction, in particular: with reduced unemployment, with increased volume of gross fixed capital formation, with an overcome of the significant real wage disparities and real labor productivity, etc. On the whole, the reduction of the "recession" GDP gap in Ukraine will be affected by: reduced unemployment (according to our calculations, the reduction in unemployment from 9.4% in 2017 to 9.2% in 2018 will result in a 0.1% reduction of the GDP); a considerable increase of the gross fixed capital formation (in the medium term, Ukraine should target at least 20% of GDP, and in the long run - up to 25%), which will facilitate the transition of the Ukrainian economy to the modernization mode; a gradual increase in real wages both due to rising nominal wages and lower inflation (wage growth rates in real terms should correspond to the real growth rates of labor productivity); and an increase in the aggregate level of labor productivity, first of all, due to intensified innovation. According to our calculations, an increase in R&D expenditures from 0.6% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP in 2017 would reduce the GDP gap by more than a half. Overcoming the gap in GDP should become an important constructive component of the economic development of Ukraine's economy in the medium and long term.
Description
Keywords
розрив ВВП, реальний та потенційний ВВП, модельний інструментарій, виробнича функція з постійною еластичністю заміщення, виробнича функція Кобба-Дугласа, розширена виробнича функція, рівень зайнятості, використання виробничих потужностей, стаття, GDP gap, real and potential GDP, model toolkit, production function with constant elasticity of substitution, Cobb-Douglas production function, extended production function, employment level, use of production capacities
Citation
Скрипниченко М. І. Інструментальний аналіз розриву ВВП в Україні / Скрипниченко М. І., Яценко Г. Ю. // Економіка і прогнозування : науковий журнал. - 2018. - № 1. - С. 58-78.