3rd Annual Research Conference "Theory and Practice of System Dynamics in Finance"

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    A Dynamic Analysis of the key destabilizing factors on the Ukrainian labor market. Wage management
    (2020) Donkohlova, Tetiana; Shportyuk, Volodymyr
    The state of the labor market is one of the socio-economic parameters that have a significant effect on the development and competitiveness level of the national economy. Labor market plays an important role in ensuring the success of market reforms, especially in the emerging economies such as Ukraine. Moreover, current state of the Ukrainian labor market is also affected by complex political and economic situation and may be generally characterized by a continuous recession and financial imbalances. In spite of a sufficiently wide range of studies dedicated to the analysis of the Ukrainian labor market stability, most papers are more focused just on the statistical analysis and general overview of the market trends. However, dynamic nature of both labor market itself and socio-economic stability of Ukraine requires conducting more comprehensive scientific researches, in particular by applying System Dynamics approach.
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    Dynamic approach to monetary policy effects modeling in Ukraine
    (2020) Nasachenko, Mariia; Lytvyn, Anton
    By pursuing a balanced and rational monetary policy, the National Bank aims to ensure stable prices, which protects incomes and savings from their depreciation. However, this was not always the case, for example until 2016 in Ukraine the main purpose of the NBU was to keep the exchange rate constant, but in 2013-2014, the National Bank decided to switch to inflation targeting (IT), which proved its effectiveness in many countries of the world. The new monetary regime has changed the power of the transmission mechanism, in particular the interest rate channel and the inflation expectation channel have become more significant and perhaps one of the key ones in passing the change in the key policy rate to real sector and inflation.
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    Economic costs of the Ukrainian conflict in Donbass
    (2020) Tsvyk, Khrystyna; Fliud, Volodymyr
    The Donbass war has taken a severe toll on Ukraine, claiming over ten thousand casualties and triggering a severe economic recession. Yet, to the best of our knowledge, there is no empirical evidence on the overall costs incurred by Ukraine as a result of the war. Thus, the goal of this paper is to start filling this gap by quantifying Ukraine’s economic indicators foregone due to the Donbass war.
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    Project activity during the study of physics using system dynamics
    (2020) Protsyshak, Lesia
    At the present stage of the process of teaching physics in primary school is an important place has not only the problem of the strength of students' knowledge acquisition, but also the ability to independently acquire meaningful knowledge for students, systematically improve them. Therefore, use is important project activities of students in the process of studying physics at school.
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    Application of system dynamics in the field of management consulting and strategic management
    (2020) Galytska, Eleonora; Primierova, Olena
    Computer technologies are currently one of the most important aspects of economic and mathematical modeling. The high rates of their development have now led to the emergence of many software tools that allow to create computer models of socio-economic processes. With a sufficiently deep knowledge of the behavior of a real system and the correct presentation of the initial information, simulation models are characterized by a greater proximity to the real system than analytical and numerical models. With the help of simulation modeling and the corresponding modern software tools, it is possible to create even those models that cannot be formulated using traditional methods. In addition, simulation allows to create models of those systems with which experiments in real life are impossible.
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    Modeling of key policy rate using system dynamics approach
    (2020) Vol, Olena
    Optimal monetary policy ensures price stability and general trust of the nation’s currency. It also contributes to the stability of gross domestic product, low unemployment, and predictable exchange rates with other currencies. In Ukraine, the authority responsible for monetary policy is the National Bank of Ukraine. The NBU’s monetary policy prioritizes achieving and maintaining price stability, meaning low and stable inflation, which protects the incomes and savings of the households from depreciation and enables entrepreneurs to make long-term investments in the domestic economy, creating jobs.
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    System dynamic modeling for banking system
    (2020) Melnyk, Anna; Pokydko, Anastasiia
    The aim of research is to reflect the impact of changes in performance indicators of the banks and economic situation on bank’s stability. The model was built for Privatbank, the stability of which is very important for the Ukrainian banking system. PrivatBank is the largest Ukrainian state-owned bank in terms of assets, which was fully recapitalized by the government in 2017 after the NBU declared it insolvent.
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    Modeling price, supply and demand by using system dynamics
    (2020) Poiasnyk, Yaryna
    Supply and demand, in economics, relationship between the quantity of a commodity that producers wish to sell at various prices and the quantity that consumers wish to buy. It is the main model of price determination used in economic theory. With demand indicated by a downward sloping demand curve and supply represented by an upward sloping supply curve, then equilibrium in this market is where demand equals supply.
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    System dynamics model for capital and productivity in Ukrainian economy
    (2020) Shybystiuk, Оlga; Barabash, Galyna
    Capital and productivity is a part of supply side model that shows how efficiently capital is used to generate output. It reflects the joint influence of labour input per unit of capital used and multifactor productivity (reflecting the overall efficiency of production). Investment in information and communication technologies in particular enables new technologies to enter the production process and is seen as an important driver of productivity growth. This model help you to learn about structure and performance of the Ukraine economy.
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    Economic costs of the Ukrainian conflict in Donbass: price sector
    (2020) Hnatiuk, Oleksandr; Kyrylych, Volodymyr
    The main purpose of this research is to give the answer for the next question: what could be the economic situation of Ukraine without war? For this, authors built the model in which considered three economic sectors: Capital, Labor and Price. The model can run in two modes: historic (with war since 2014) and experimental (without war). In historic mode, stocks take on the initial values that existed in the particular historical year in which the simulation begins (2006). In the experimental model, authors assume that there is no war and we use self-predicted data from 2014 to 2019.
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    The impact of remittances on the nation's wealth and business development in the country of origin
    (2020) Novik, Alina; Sysa, Maryna
    The relevance of this study is to form an understanding of the impact of migrant remittances inflow on the development of society and the economic climate of their countries of origin.
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    Modeling of production target for Ukraine using system dynamic method
    (2020) Mykhalenych, Marianna; Kozytskyi, Valerii
    The main target of the model is to develop the system dynamics model about Production Target for Ukraine. The model shows how different parameters such as initial real Aggregate demand, inventories influence.
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    Conceptual frameworks of credit systems modelling by means system dynamics tools
    (2020) Kaminskyi, Andrii; Petrovskyi, Oleksii
    Modern credit market is a complex system with rapidly increasing dynamic. This raises many interdependencies between constituent elements of this system. On of such component is set of interdependencies between market conditions and banks performance. Basically, banks develop their credit strategies in accordance of credit market conditions. But when banks realize their strategies it is changing the condition of the market with some delay in time. It is classical systemic effect. Typically changes concern to following market characteristics: Average deposit rate; Average time for issuing loan; Average interest rate; Number of potential borrowers; Average banks’ profitability.
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    System dynamic modeling of knowledge accumulation processes
    (2020) Khrystan, Olena; Oliskevych, Marianna
    The large difference in economic development among countries is associated with knowledge development. The distribution of factors takes into account two sectors – research and development (R&D) sector and good-production sector. We assume that some fraction of labor force as well as some fraction of capital are used in R&D sector. Rest of them are used in goods production sector.
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    Path dependence in sovereign debt modelling
    (2020) Hryhoriev, Hennadii
    Main purpose of this research is to implement one of the basic dynamic concepts - time path dependence, into sovereign debt sphere of analysis with the elaborating the appropriate model using the continuous dynamic model. One of the main questions, we are trying to answer is: "Is sovereign debt dynamic equilibrium (in Ukraine) stable, unstable or moving around?".
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    System dynamics investigation of wage-price spiral
    (2020) Dubrovna, Natalia; Kyrylych, Volodymyr
    The main idea of this work is to outline the wage-price spiral. A wage-price spiral is caused by the effect of supply and demand on aggregate prices. The value of the workers` services is derived from the value of the products they help to create. This is the doctrine and the meaning of productivity.
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    Factors of growing shadow economy in Ukraine, policies to reduce it
    (2020) Hlushchenko, Viktoriia; Klimchenko, Vladyslav
    Object of this investigation is a growing dynamic of the shadow economy in Ukraine from 2005 to 2018.
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    System dynamics modeling of production target for Ukraine
    (2020) Paletska, Maryna; Hutsul, Diana
    Desired production is a short-term decision that typically calls for temporary under- or over-utilization of production capacity (e.g., "overtime"). This model jumpstarts the production process by targeting the fraction of productive capacity that will be utilized. Once "desired production" is determined, decisions on utilization of labor and capital will follow. The main target of the model is to develop the system dynamics model about Production Target for Ukraine. The driving force is aggregate demand: the sum of household consumption, government consumption, and net exports. The desired production depends on aggregate demand and desired inventories.
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    Modeling national income response to external shocks in Ukraine
    (2020) Orlovska, Oleksandra; Riabtsun, Yevhen
    To provide valid academic researches or implement proper policy, it is crucial to understand the behavior of the economy as a complex model. In our work we discover the impact of expenditure shock on open economy Simple Keynesian Model.
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    Main macroeconomic factors of changes in budget revenues in modern conditions
    (2020) Panchenko, Nataliia; Mertens, Alexander
    The formation of budget revenues in Ukraine is the most important component of the entire process of managing the budgetary system. According to the Budget Code, budget revenues are understood as tax, non-tax and other revenues on a non-refundable basis, the collection of which is provided for by the legislation of Ukraine (including transfers, fees for the provision of administrative services, own revenues of budgetary institutions). The instability of the economic environment leads to the need for a more detailed and in-depth study of the processes taking place in the framework of budget revenue management.