Кафедра економічної теорії
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Browsing Кафедра економічної теорії by Author "Hryhoriev, Hennadii"
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Item Artificial intelligence – challenges for the future(Національний університет "Києво-Могилянська академія", 2024) Hryhoriev, HennadiiМатеріали науково-практичної конференції "Інноваційні ідеї в економічній науці: пошуки вирішення сучасних проблем" (2024)Item Debt deflation and world economic growth: system dynamics approach(2023) Hryhoriev, HennadiiProceeding of 6th Annual International Research Conference "Modelling and implementation of the financial policy of Ukraine to ensure macroeconomic stability", December 22, 2023, Kyiv, Ukraine.Item Debt deflation theory and middle-income trap: system dynamics approach(2024) Hryhoriev, HennadiiThe article analyzes the theoretical and practical aspects of the theory of the relationship between national debt and deflationary processes using the example of the impact of the economic recession in China on the decline in global economic growth, and determines the systemic effects of the national economy falling into the middle income debt trap and exiting it. With the help of simulation models, which are based on the methodology of system dynamics, the interrelationship of economic processes of global and national economies is presented. It was found that deflation leads to an increase in the price of the existing external and internal debt and inhibits economic growth and economic development of the national economy and is one of the forms of the country’s middle income trap. The use of the scenario approach made it possible to identify the basic options for the development of the world economy under the influence of negative economic phenomena at the national level and to develop appropriate recommendations for middle-income countries to achieve the goals of macroeconomic and financial stabilization with the appropriate access to the trajectory of new economic development.The study found that the factors of education, social and innovative development are of decisive importance in the country’s achievement of the goal of leaving the middle income trap. The economies of such countries as China are unable to independently overcome this trap without further involvement in global integration and trade processes, and at the same time they themselves form deflationary processes at the global level. In addition, the policy of economic and political semi-isolation leads to the destabilization of the existing world economic and financial systems.Item Macroeconomic risks of the new global technological order(Національний університет "Києво-Могилянська академія", 2023) Hryhoriev, HennadiiМатеріали науково-практичної конференції "Інноваційні ідеї в економічній науці: пошуки вирішення сучасних проблем" (2023).Item Sovereign debt and post-war Ukrainian economic growth – system dynamics approach(2023) Hryhoriev, HennadiiThe aim of the article is to examine the post-war national economy, notably overburdened with significant war expenditures and the effects of sovereign debt restructuring in a wartime period. The research uses system dynamics modelling methods, operates with S-shaped growth, overshoot and collapse dynamic patterns. The oscillation patterns of behaviour have been used to demonstrate the scenario options of possible external debt minimization. The dynamic hypothesis about non-linear behaviour of post-war debt trajectory has revealed the intrinsic growth rate in debt-dependent economy and the inflection point of no return to stable economic growth without radical decision of sovereign debt cancellation. The direct consequence of a negative solution for debt cancellation would be the unpredictable, even chaotic fluctuations of national economic growth rate. Baseline simulation to prove the results of research has been provided. The embedded "dependent-economy" type of macrostructure does not allow to overcome the critical debt overhang level and needs a new national model with appropriate policy to stabilize the economy. Performance of post-war debt repayment depends mostly on an innovative fund, which can be created by export abilities in the framework of post-war recovery plan. The results of the research may be applied by national authorities responsible for macroeconomic debt policy. The obtained results of the study allow us to draw a conclusion about the impossibility of developing the national economy within the framework of the existing economic structure of the developing country. The debt trap, which cannot be eliminated, does not allow to develop the national innovative economy and ensure economic growth and development.Item System dynamics approach to external debt postwar resolution(2023) Hryhoriev, HennadiiProceeding of 5th Annual Research Conference "System dynamics modeling framework for the financial system", December 16, 2022, Kyiv, Ukraine.