Кафедра економічної теорії

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Creativity in the system of ensuring human social security at the enterprise during times of war and economic recovery in Ukraine
(2024) Varnalii, Zaharii; Bazhenova, Olena; Mykytiuk, Oksana; Onysenko, Tetiana
The study aims to analyze the current challenges of human social security at the enterprise, which acquire new aspects and relevance in the conditions of war and post-war recovery. In the context of innovation and technological progress, this problem takes on a new meaning, requiring effective tools and systems to support citizens. In recent years, societal crises such as the coronavirus epidemic and Russia’s military aggression have transformed social security, increasingly emphasizing military protection and physical security of citizens. Traditionally, social security of a person determines the level of protection of citizens’ interests, rights, and freedoms, as well as the provision of psychological support. Special attention is paid to the formation of a dedicated system of social security at the enterprise, ensuring the protection of employees and their well-being. Under normal conditions, the social security system at enterprises is a stable working structure that is continually improved through the introduction of new tools and functions. Ensuring the social security of a person at the enterprise amidst geostrategic threats requires analysis and effective efforts to maintain peace and stability. The study analyzes and evaluates the factors influencing the level of social security among enterprise personnel, with a focus on the role of creativity as a new tool for shaping and transforming the human social security system. It is determined that creativity can be realized through the existing intellectual potential of the enterprise. The application of these transformation processes is especially relevant for relocated enterprises which have faced the challenges of wartime most acutely and can adequately assess the social needs of their staff. The outcome of the article is the provision of recommendations on establishing an effective system of social security of a person at the level of economic entities. These recommendations consider the incorporation of creativity and innovative approaches in crafting the social infrastructure of the enterprise to ensure its stable development and well-being.
Does Economy Affect Political Choice? Evidence from Ukraine
(2022) Slukhai, Sergii; Slukhai, Nataliia; Bazhenova, Olena
In this paper economic performance as a determinant of political choice in a transition nation has been analyzed. The bulk of public choice and politic study literature published in the recent decades (see e.g. Bustrikova & Zechmeister, 2017; Jastramskis, Kuokštis and Baltrukevičius 2019; Lewis-Beck & Stegmaier 2019; Talving 2018; Valdini & Lewis-Beck 2018) delivers results that support the economic vote hypothesis not only in developed countries, but also in certain transition nations. Thus, the authors set out to ascertain whether this hypothesis holds in the conditions of Ukraine. The paper is based on an analysis of panel data collected in Ukraine since independence. The authors try to find out whether economic performance really has an influence on the outcome of political choice in such in a specific nation in transit as Ukraine. Due to relevance criteria only three out of seven presidential elections in Ukraine have been analyzed with respective association to economic data of the pre-election period. It is proven through a panel model that, unlike in countries with developed democracies, in Ukraine the retrospective economic vote in presidential elections was not observed; it turned out to be prospective instead with regard to the latest presidential election in 2019. The authors presented a set of possible reasons to explain this phenomenon: lack of democratic experience, relying on heuristics and emotions, low public mood among others. Some of them have been flagged by us before on a theoretical level (Slukhai 2021). It has been demonstrated that Ukrainians‘ political choice in 2019 has consequences for the economy, which may contribute to the loss of a nation‘s development guidelines for a certain period of time, as well as subsequent social disappointment. The results achieved could be applied to the prospective development of the economic and political situation in Ukraine; it may give clues on how the country could develop after the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war is over.
The effects of monetary policy shock: evidence from systemically important economies
(2024) Bazhenova, Olena; Banna, Oksana; Bazhenov, Volodymyr; Banny, Ivan
In the paper, we explore the effects of monetary policy shock on the economic growth in systemically important countries such as the US, the Euro Area and China and their impact on Ukraine. Thus, the war in Ukraine and the rise of key policy rates by central banks to curb inflation have had a significant negative impact on economic activity. There has been both a significant decrease in trade activity and a slowdown in the services sector growth, which was the main engine of global economic growth at the beginning of 2023. Based on the vector autoregression model results, wedemonstrated a slight initial decline of GDP growth with following stabilization in response to the rise of key policy rates in the US. In China, this decline is much bigger and constitutes 11% after the shock. In the Euro Area, we also observe a similar pattern as in the US with an initial decline up to 2% and a further return to equilibrium. Analyzing the results of the forecast error variance decomposition, we should note that GDP fluctuations in sys-temically significant economies are mainly explained by their own fluctuations. The key policy rate’s contribution ranges from 1% in the US to 11% in China. At the same time, economic growth in China is less vulnerable to inflation fluctuations, in the Eurozone we observe the most sustained one among the considered economies. In addition, the study shows that the key policy rate in the United States has a positive effect on the one in Ukraine.
Foreign economic strategic priorities of Ukraine
(2023) Filipenko, Anton; Bazhenova, Olena; Polishchuk, Lina; Rylach, Nataliya
The paper is devoted to the analysis of modern foreign economic strategic priorities of Ukraine, features of their implementation in the context of the key purposes of economic development of the country. Emphasis is placed on the need to use modern tools to support domestic producers and limit import expansion in the context of the formation of a new export strategy of Ukraine. Ukraine is a small open economy that makes extensive use of external factors of economic development both in the context of markets for its products, especially the agricultural sector, and attracting important resources of critical imports, including oil and natural gas, electronic equipment and more. From this point of view, the analysis has revealed the role and importance of two key players in the world market – the United States and China – in ensuring Ukraine’s external economic balance. The paper empirically examines the dependence of certain macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine on similar indicators of the United States and China (the so-called ‘large’ and systemically important economies for Ukraine). Vector autoregression models were used as a research tool to explore the dynamic interdependencies between macroeconomic indicators in the case of explaining their present values by the previous ones. For this purpose, percentage changes in gross domestic product and consumer price index compared to the corresponding period of the previous year for the USA, China and Ukraine were selected. As a result of the research, impulse-response functions from ‘large’ economies showed the dependence of indicators that characterise economic development in Ukraine from them and their long-term absorption, both in the context of economic growth in these countries and inflation imports from abroad. Moreover, it should be noted that the influence of China is more significant than that of the United States, especially if we consider the impact of fluctuations in the consumer price index in China on economic growth and inflation in Ukraine. This necessitates further research on this issue in line with the formation of scientifically sound foreign economic strategy and policy of Ukraine. The impact of economic growth in the United States and China on Ukraine’s GDP fluctuations is positive and almost the same (peaking in the second quarter and gradual levelling over two years). In turn, the variance decomposition of forecast errors for Ukraine’s GDP shows that in the long run about 52% of its variability result from modelled external factors, which in our opinion is due to significant openness of Ukraine’s economy and, consequently, ‘large’ economies. Finally, paper emphasizes the need to assess their international economic policy to minimize risks in the implementation of the country’s foreign economic strategy.
The impact of the war effects on human social security in Ukraine
(2025) Bazhenova, Olena; Banna, Oksana
Background. The paper explores the impact of such external factors as military aggression from russia on the human social security system in Ukraine. During the war, this system is affected mainly by external factors. Moreover, in the case of Ukraine, the dominant external influence is the military aggression against Ukraine. Thus, the purpose of this study is to determine the impact of external disturbances that determine the sustainability of human social security in Ukraine during a hybrid and full-scale war. Methods. For this purpose, we used the most influential internal factors that exerted an influence on human social security in Ukraine during the war (people using at least basic sanitation services as % of population, proportion of people living below 50 percent of median income in %, domestic credit to private sector by banks in % of GDP, internally displaced persons, new displacement associated with conflict and violence, number of cases, armed forces personnel in million people). To study the impact of military aggression from russia on the human social security system in Ukraine we used vector autoregression models framework. The fact of military aggression we incorporated in models by using russia's military expenditures in current billion US dollars as it correctly reflects the most acute phases of the conflict and preparation for the war in 2021. Results. The results of the models showed that the dynamics of the proportion of people living below 50 percent of median income is characterized by significant deterioration, especially after the eighth period after the shock. Fluctuations of this indicator are explained at almost 50% by changes in military expenditures in russia. The decrease in domestic credit to the private sector by banks in the first period after the shock in military expenditures in russia is up to 7%. Then the situation improves, but it still is lower than the equilibrium level. The volatility of domestic credit to the private sector by banks is nearly 22% explained by fluctuations in russia's military expenditure. In addition, we observe an immediate increase in the number of internally displaced persons and new displacements associated with conflict and violence by up to 35 %. At the same time, the volatility of the number of internally displaced persons and new displacements is explained by the volatility of military expenditures in the russian federation at 95%. Also, an immediate rise of the personnel of the armed forces in Ukraine due to the shock is up to 8% which tails off until the sixth year. Changes in military expenditure in russia explain 91% of fluctuations of this indicator. Conclusions. Finally, it may be concluded that the system of human social security in Ukraine is relatively stable due to the influence of external factors.
Modeling human social security during war
(2023) Bazhenova, Olena; Varnalii, Zaharii; Cheberyako, Oksana; Mykytiuk, Oksana
This paper explores the impact of economic and social policy on the life expectancy at birth as it determines the human social security in the country, reflecting the level of life support, well-being, social protection and self-preservation, as well as the level of education and self-development. We identified a certain “trap of social insecurity”, when a low level of income in the country leads to the degradation of human capital, a decrease in life expectancy due to the lack of adequate social protection that may ultimately lead to the slowdown in economic development. This mechanism of maintaining social insecurity significantly accelerates during military conflicts. From the cluster analysis, we can conclude that hybrid wars do not have a noticeable effect on the average life expectancy of the population. The empirical results of the panel VAR model showed slight response of life expectancy to economic and social policy shocks in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – countries that are the victims of either hybrid wars or full-scale hostilities on the territory of the former USSR. The most significant effect on life expectancy is exerted by the growth of gross domestic product per capita. Current health expenditure per capita shocks have a small positive effect on life expectancy in the short run. On the other hand, unemployment and the factor of hybrid wars and military conflicts have a slight negative impact in the short term. In the long run, all the above impacts are leveled off. At the same time, the results of decomposition of the variance of the forecast errors of life expectancy at birth showed that its volatility is largely explained by the inherent fluctuations of this indicator. The variation of gross domestic product per capita explains about 9% of the variation in life expectancy at birth in the selected countries, unemployment – slightly more than 2%.

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