Political Threat Assessment in Eastern Neighbourhood & Western Balkan Countries : REUNIR – D5.1 – working paper

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dc.contributor.authorIsabell, Burmester en_US
dc.contributor.authorBieber, Florian en_US
dc.contributor.authorBlockmans, Steven en_US
dc.contributor.authorDelcour, Laure en_US
dc.contributor.authorErmurachi, Adriab en_US
dc.contributor.authorKakachia, Kornely en_US
dc.contributor.authorOsypchuk, Anna en_US
dc.contributor.authorPetrović, Predrag en_US
dc.contributor.authorPollozhani, Lura en_US
dc.contributor.authorSuslov, Anton en_US
dc.contributor.otherLebanidze, Bidiznaen_US
dc.contributor.otherSabura, Olehen_US
dc.contributor.otherYakovlyev, Maksymen_US
dc.date.accessioned2026-03-03T13:13:53Z
dc.date.available2026-03-03T13:13:53Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractThis working paper assesses political threats to democratisation and EU integration in the Eastern Neighbourhood (EN) and Western Balkans (WB). These regions are vital for the European Union’s strategic goals, yet their progress is hindered by geopolitical interference from actors such as Russia, China, Türkiye, and the Gulf states. The geopolitical context highlights how EN and WB countries are navigating a complex landscape of influence. Russia remains the most disruptive external actor, employing political interference, disinformation, and cultural diplomacy to destabilise governments and impede EU alignment. Countries like Serbia, Georgia, and Moldova are particularly vulnerable to Russian tactics, which includes support for separatist movements and anti-EU political narratives. China’s approach is more subtle, focusing on economic investments and promoting its governance model as an alternative to liberal democracy, with notable impacts in Serbia and Montenegro. Türkiye and the Gulf states primarily use cultural and religious diplomacy, leveraging historical and religious ties to expand their influence, although their impact is less destabilising compared to Russia. The threat assessment reveals that external actors use a range of tools to undermine democratic institutions and EU integration efforts. These include disinformation campaigns, electoral interference, and leveraging cultural and religious institutions. The likelihood and impact of these threats vary, with Russia’s activities in Serbia and Georgia posing significant risks. China’s influence, although less overt, fosters long-term authoritarian tendencies. Cultural diplomacy by Russia and Türkiye further complicates the democratic aspirations of these regions, through exploiting societal divisions and historical narratives. Addressing these threats requires targeted EU policies to mitigate vulnerabilities such as weak institutions, restricted media freedom, and socio-economic instability. Comprehensive strategies must counter hybrid threats while fostering resilience in candidate countries to ensure their alignment with democratic norms and European integration objectives. This Working Paper serves as a foundation for further research and policy development to strengthen the EU’s position in these contested regions. en_US
dc.identifier.citationPolitical Threat Assessment in Eastern Neighbourhood & Western Balkan Countries : REUNIR – D5.1 – working paper / Isabell Burmester, ... Anna Osypchuk, Anton Suslov [et al.] ; contributors: Bidizna Lebanidze, Oleh Sabura, Maksym Yakovlyev ; [National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy et al.]. - [S. l. : s. n.], 2025. - 78, [1] p. : tables, figs. - Authors: Isabell Burmester, Florian Bieber, Steven Blockmans, Laure Delcour, Adriab Ermurachi, Kornely Kakachia, Anna Osypchuk, Predrag Petrović, Lura Pollozhani, Anton Suslov. en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/handle/123456789/38523
dc.language.isoen en_US
dc.statusfirst published en_US
dc.subjectEastern Neighbourhood en_US
dc.subjectWestern Balkans en_US
dc.subjectEU integration en_US
dc.subjectdemocratisation en_US
dc.subjectpolitical interference en_US
dc.subjecteconomic investments en_US
dc.subjectreport en_US
dc.titlePolitical Threat Assessment in Eastern Neighbourhood & Western Balkan Countries : REUNIR – D5.1 – working paper en_US
dc.typeReport en_US
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Школа політичної аналітики