Will Ukraine’s 2019 Elections Be a Turning Point? Unlikely, but dangers lurk

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Haran, Oleksii
Burkovsky, Petro
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Next year, amid an ongoing conflict with Russia, sluggish economic recovery, and the rise of populism, Ukrainians will elect a new president (in March) and a new parliament (in October). Although the Ukrainian public is fragmented in its support of the six or seven frontrunners and parties, the outcome of both elections is not likely to bring radical change to Kyiv’s foreign and security policies-unless Russia decides to intervene, with or without violence. Ukrainians may be wary about Russian-backed activities, such as fostering a divisive referendum about conflict resolution in the Donbas or stirring up tensions between the government and ethnic minorities or Moscow patriarchate zealots. The country’s Western partners should not downplay the Kremlin’s potential interventions, nor should they overreact to any new configurations of Ukrainian political power. Perhaps the most important imperative for both Ukrainians and the West is to continue pushing for the separation of oligarchs from the levers of governance. Although much can change over the next five months, the current outlook is that political developments in 2019 are not expected to produce another major turning point in the colorful history of Ukraine.
politology, elections, Ukraine, Poroshenko’s Legacy, Russian Meddling, business, article
Haran O. Will Ukraine’s 2019 Elections Be a Turning Point? Unlikely, but dangers lurk [electronic resourse] / Oleхiy Haran, Petro Burkovsky // PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo. - Electronic data. - 2018. - November. - No. 552. - P. 1-7. - Mode of access: Internet. - Title from the screen (viewed 07.12.2018).