Dynamic framework for strategic forecasting of the bank consumer loan market: Evidence from Ukraine

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dc.contributor.authorKaminskyi, Andrii
dc.contributor.authorVersal, Nataliia
dc.contributor.authorPetrovskyi, Oleksii
dc.contributor.authorPrykaziuk, Nataliia
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-24T09:05:07Z
dc.date.available2019-05-24T09:05:07Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractAccurate forecasting of consumer loan market behavior gives banks a huge potential to optimize their credit strategies by proactively adapting to external changes. This study aims to analyze and predict consumer loan demand, supply, and profitability in the Ukrainian banking sector. Using a systemic dynamic approach, the interplay of five key factors is considered: central bank policies, GDP fluctuations, changing competitive landscape driven by FinTech companies, investment in government bonds as an alternative to loan granting, and severity of credit risk management. The developed dynamic model for the bank consumer loan market in Ukraine offers predictive capabilities enhancing decision-making and strategic planning in the banking sector and can be adapted in open small economies. Within the proposed systemic dynamic model, five scenarios were explored. Compared to the base scenario, a 4 p.p. increase in the key policy rate results in UAH 4.7 billion decrease in demand for bank consumer loans and a UAH 0.55 billion reduction in lending profitability based on the year’s results. Fall in GDP by 6 p.p. leads to a decrease in the supply of bank consumer loans by UAH 6.9 billion and a decrease in lending income by UAH 1.3 billion based on the year’s results. Scenario with the decline of FinTech portfolio by 20 p.p. quarterly leads to an increase in demand for bank consumer loans of UAH 8 billion. A 4 p.p. rise in government bond yields leads to a UAH 17 billion reduction in the supply of consumer loans in the same quarter.en_US
dc.identifier.citationDynamic framework for strategic forecasting of the bank consumer loan market: Evidence from Ukraine / Andrii Kaminskyi, Nataliia Versal, Oleksii Petrovskyi, Nataliia Prykaziuk // Banks and Bank Systems. - 2023. - Vol. 18, Issue 3. - Р. 87-100. - https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.08en_US
dc.identifier.issn1816-7403
dc.identifier.urihttps://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/handle/123456789/15698
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.08
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.source Banks and Bank Systemsen_US
dc.statusfirst publisheduk_UA
dc.subjectbankingen_US
dc.subjectmarket behavioren_US
dc.subjectloan portfolioen_US
dc.subjectsystem dynamicsen_US
dc.subjectscenario analysisen_US
dc.subjectarticleen_US
dc.titleDynamic framework for strategic forecasting of the bank consumer loan market: Evidence from Ukraineen_US
dc.typeArticleuk_UA
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