Regional Climate Modeling of the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Annual Surface Air Temperature in the Ukrainian Plains
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Date
2025
Authors
Boychenko, Svitlana
Maidanovych, Nadiia
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Abstract
This study analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution of the average annual surface air temperature in the plain part of Ukraine by comparing modeled estimates with actual values. The study confirms a warming trend in Ukraine, with average annual temperatures rising in line with global patterns. Over the past 30 years, temperatures increased from 6.5-7°C in northeastern Ukraine in 1991 to 9.5°C in 2020, while the southern plains saw a rise from 10-10.5°C to 12-12.5°C. The authors' regional semi-empirical model effectively captures temperature distribution across the Ukrainian plains. A comparison of the model estimates of annual temperatures for 72 meteorological stations in Ukraine with their actual values revealed a statistically significant correlation (R² = 0.96-0.98). It accounts for altitude, latitude, and longitude influences while remaining computationally efficient for climate analysis and policy planning. Urban "heat islands" were identified in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Kharkiv, where temperatures exceeded model predictions by 0.5–0.7°C. GIS-based interpolation provides a clear visualization of temperature patterns, though refinements are needed to improve accuracy, particularly in urban areas like Kyiv and coastal regions, where warming is slightly underestimated. The findings contribute to climate research, agriculture, and environmental policy planning, emphasizing the necessity of localized climate adaptation strategies.
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Keywords
average annual surface air temperature, warming trend in Ukraine, urban "heat islands", climate research, conference materials
Citation
Boychenko S. H. Regional Climate Modeling of the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Annual Surface Air Temperature in the Ukrainian Plains / S. Boychenko, N. Maidanovych // XVIII International Scientific Conference "Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment", 14-17 April 2025, Kyiv, Ukraine. - [S. l.] : European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers, 2025. - Vol. 2025. - P. 1-5. - https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.2025510091