A Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planning

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorErmolieva, Tatiana
dc.contributor.authorHavlik, Petr
dc.contributor.authorFrank, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorKahil, Taher
dc.contributor.authorBalkovic, Juraj
dc.contributor.authorSkalsky, Rastislav
dc.contributor.authorErmoliev, Yuri
dc.contributor.authorKnopov, Pavel
dc.contributor.authorBorodina, Olena
dc.contributor.authorGorbachuk, Vasyl
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-01T10:21:56Z
dc.date.available2023-09-01T10:21:56Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractUncertainty and variability are key challenges for climate change adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed, and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acquired information. This decision-making approach corresponds to the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) incorporating both anticipative ex ante and adaptive ex post decisions within a single model. This paper develops a two-stage STO model for climate change adaptation through robust land use and irrigation planning under conditions of uncertain water supply. The model identifies the differences between decision-making in the cases of perfect information, full uncertainty, and two-stage STO from the perspective of learning about uncertainty. Two-stage anticipative and adaptive decision-making with safety constraints provides risk-informed decisions characterized by quantile-based Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The ratio between the ex ante and ex post costs and the shape of uncertainty determine the balance between the anticipative and adaptive decisions. Selected numerical results illustrate that the alteration of the ex ante agricultural production costs can affect crop production, management technologies, and natural resource utilization.en_US
dc.identifier.citationA Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planning / Tatiana Ermolieva, Petr Havlik, Stefan Frank, Taher Kahil, Juraj Balkovic, Rastislav Skalsky, Yuri Ermoliev, Pavel S. Knopov, Olena M. Borodina, Vasyl M. Gorbachuk // Sustainability. - 2022. - Vol. 14, Issue 3. - Article number 1430. - 14 p. - https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031430en_US
dc.identifier.issn2162-5689
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/su14031430
dc.identifier.urihttps://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/handle/123456789/25782
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.sourceSustainabilityen_US
dc.statusfirst publisheduk_UA
dc.subjectclimate changeen_US
dc.subjectsystemic risksen_US
dc.subjectrobust land use and irrigationen_US
dc.subjectrobust anticipative and adaptive decisionsen_US
dc.subjecttwo-stage STOen_US
dc.subjectsafety constraintsen_US
dc.subjectVaR and CVaR risk measuresen_US
dc.subjectarticleen_US
dc.titleA Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planningen_US
dc.typeArticleuk_UA
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
A_Risk-Informed_Decision-Making_Framework_for_Climate_Change_Adaptation_through_Robust_Land_Use_and_Irrigation_Planning.pdf
Size:
466.26 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Кафедра фінансів