Особливості відтворення населення в Україні напередодні широкомасштабного російського вторгнення
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Date
2022
Authors
Курило, Ірина
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Abstract
Стаття присвячена проблемам відтворення населення в Україні у період перед широкомасштабним російським вторгненням. Мета роботи − проаналізувати новітні демографічні тенденції, оцінити
стан природного відтворення населення перед війною та визначити основні напрями впливу воєнних подій на демографічне відтворення. Аналіз показав, що після відносно сприятливого періоду підвищення народжуваності (2002–2012 рр.) й сталого зниження смертності (2008–2013 рр.) в Україні, вже у 2014–2021 рр. відбувалось погіршення параметрів природного руху населення. Військово-політична та економічна нестабільність останніми роками була підсилена також епідемією COVID-19, що спричинило значне збільшення масштабів й інтенсивності депопуляції. Наслідки війни для відтворення населення будуть вкрай несприятливими, їх вплив позначатиметься на демографічному відтворенні ще тривалий час після перемоги України в цій війні.
The article is devoted to the problems of population reproduction in Ukraine in the period before the full-scale Russian invasion. The purpose of the work was to analyze the specific features of the latest demographic dynamics and to assess the state of natural reproduction of the population before the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war. This paper also aimed to determine the main directions of effects of war events on demographic reproduction, as well as to outline the consequences of the Russian invasion for the processes of natural population movement in Ukraine. The work uses general statistical as along with specific demographic methods: analysis of dynamics, population reproduction mode, graphic method. Techniques of demographic history periodization and international comparisons are involved in the research. The conducted analysis showed that after a relatively favorable period of increasing fertility (2002–2012 years) and a steady decrease in mortality (2008–2013 years) and a certain decrease in the scale of depopulation in Ukraine, already in 2014–2021 years there was a deterioration of the parameters of natural population movement in Ukraine. The military-political and economic instability during this period was exacerbated (in recent years) by the COVID-19 epidemic, which caused a significant increase in the scale and intensity of depopulation in the country. Therefore, Ukraine approached the full-scale war aggression unleashed by the Russian Federation against our country with an extremely unfavorable situation regarding demographic reproduction. The consequences of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation for the reproduction of the population of Ukraine will also be really negative and long-term, they will affect the reproduction of the population for a long period of time after the victory of our country in this war. The results of this study can serve as a basis for further assessment of the demographic losses of Ukraine during the war and a basis for the formation of socio-demographic policy in the period of the country's post-war development.
The article is devoted to the problems of population reproduction in Ukraine in the period before the full-scale Russian invasion. The purpose of the work was to analyze the specific features of the latest demographic dynamics and to assess the state of natural reproduction of the population before the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war. This paper also aimed to determine the main directions of effects of war events on demographic reproduction, as well as to outline the consequences of the Russian invasion for the processes of natural population movement in Ukraine. The work uses general statistical as along with specific demographic methods: analysis of dynamics, population reproduction mode, graphic method. Techniques of demographic history periodization and international comparisons are involved in the research. The conducted analysis showed that after a relatively favorable period of increasing fertility (2002–2012 years) and a steady decrease in mortality (2008–2013 years) and a certain decrease in the scale of depopulation in Ukraine, already in 2014–2021 years there was a deterioration of the parameters of natural population movement in Ukraine. The military-political and economic instability during this period was exacerbated (in recent years) by the COVID-19 epidemic, which caused a significant increase in the scale and intensity of depopulation in the country. Therefore, Ukraine approached the full-scale war aggression unleashed by the Russian Federation against our country with an extremely unfavorable situation regarding demographic reproduction. The consequences of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation for the reproduction of the population of Ukraine will also be really negative and long-term, they will affect the reproduction of the population for a long period of time after the victory of our country in this war. The results of this study can serve as a basis for further assessment of the demographic losses of Ukraine during the war and a basis for the formation of socio-demographic policy in the period of the country's post-war development.
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Keywords
відтворення населення, народжуваність, смертність, депопуляція, війна Російської Федерації проти України, стаття, population reproduction, fertility, mortality, depopulation, war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine
Citation
Курило І. О. Особливості відтворення населення в Україні напередодні широкомасштабного російського вторгнення / Курило Ірина Олексіївна // Економіка та суспільство. - 2022. - Вип. 42. - [6] с. - https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2022-42-41