Abstract:
This article explores the impact of weather conditions on core sectors of the Ukrainian economy and the composite index of economic activity in Ukraine. We build autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models using statistical data provided by the Central Geophysical Observatory named after Boris Sreznevsky (CGO) and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period 2004-2019. The obtained outcomes show that fluctuations in the air temperature and precipitation are significant determinants of output in different sectors (specifically agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and energy). Therefore, the inclusion of weather conditions into models may potentially improve the modeling properties and forecasting of economic activity.
