The Impact of Weather Conditions on Economic Activity in Ukraine
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Date
2020
Authors
Yatsenko, Hanna
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
National Bank of Ukraine
Abstract
This article explores the impact of weather conditions on core sectors of the Ukrainian economy and the composite index of economic activity in Ukraine. We build autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models using statistical data provided by the Central Geophysical Observatory named after Boris Sreznevsky (CGO) and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period 2004-2019. The obtained outcomes show that fluctuations in the air temperature and precipitation are significant determinants of output in different sectors (specifically agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and energy). Therefore, the inclusion of weather conditions into models may potentially improve the modeling properties and forecasting of economic activity.
Description
Keywords
autoregressive distributed lag model, weather conditions, article, авторегресія з розподіленим лагом, метеорологічні умови
Citation
Yatsenko H. The Impact of Weather Conditions on Economic Activity in Ukraine / Hanna Yatsenko // Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine. - 2020. - No. 249. - Р. 25-49. - https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2020.249.03