Науково-дослідна лабораторія "Науки про Землю"

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Conceptual approach to the monitoring programme for the wetland of international importance Prut River Headwaters
(2024) Korchemluk, Marta; Arkhypova, Liudmyla; Mykhailiuk, Yuliia
Functioning as a flood regulator and a freshwater reservoir, the Prut River Headwaters Wetland, protected under the Ramsar Convention, is a crucial hub of biodiversity, including endemic, rare, and threatened species listed in the national and global Red Lists. There are gaps regarding site management issues, including a lack of an integrated wetland monitoring system. Therefore, the objective of this research was to organise the processes involved in the comprehensive planning of wetland monitoring. To achieve this, the study utilised the conceptual framework for monitoring developed by the expert group of the UNESCO Chair on Sustainable Management of Conservation Areas. By employing the method of information-analytical research, a model for the water monitoring programme focused on the Prut River Headwaters Wetland was developed. A combination of physicochemical and hydrobiological assessments has been designed and partly tested. The method was used to test the universality of the proposed methodology in a specific studied area that requires sustainable management, and for the purpose of studying the perspective of application to other wetlands or valuable natural complexes in nature conservation areas. For the Conceptual Phase of the monitoring programme development, the key elements of river basin management of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union were used in synergy with the provisions of the Ramsar Convention. During the Implementation Phase, field and laboratory investigations of water bodies within the testing site at seven control points were conducted (measuring physicochemical parameters with portable equipment). All parameters’ values were within the limits of permissible norms. A primary database of results stored in the SMART software has been created. The practical implementation of the water monitoring plan is anticipated to contribute to the evaluation of the wetland ecosystem’s condition and support the administration of the Carpathian National Nature Park in the sustainable management of the wetland area.
The digital twin use for modeling the multi-storey building response to seismic impacts
(Structural Concrete, 2024) Marienkov, Mykola; Kaliukh, Iurii; Trofymchuk, Oleksandr
This work is dedicated to theoretical and experimental research on constructing a digital twin for a 24-story building located in a seismic zone with the possibility of seismic vibrations of up to eight on the Richter scale.
Ecological Assessment and Forecasting of Surface Water Conditions in the Dnipro River in Zaporizhzhia
(2025) Horoshkova, Lidiіa; Menshov, Oleksandr; Korniichuk, Yuliia; Horoshkov, Stanislav ; Maslov, Denys
Purpose. To provide a comprehensive environmental assessment and forecast of the condition of surface waters of the Dnipro River within the Zaporizhzhia region, with a focus on the dynamics of key water quality indicators during the period 2013–2024. Special attention is given to anthropogenic factors, particularly the consequences of military actions and the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, which significantly altered the hydrological regime and impacted the ecological balance of the river. Methods. Systems analysis, statistical data processing methods, distribution analysis, and regression modeling were employed to assess retrospective dynamics and predict future trends. Results. Long-term monitoring data obtained from the Water Monitoring Laboratory of the Basin Water Resources Department of the Azov Sea Rivers were used. The primary focus was on evaluating six key water quality indicators: phosphates, ammonium, sulfate and chloride ions, biochemical oxygen demand over five days (BOD₅), and dissolved oxygen concentration, to assess the ecological state of the Dnipro River's surface waters in the Zaporizhzhia region, particularly in the drinking water intake area (DVS No. 1) in the upper reservoir of the Dnipro HPP. Phosphate and ammonium concentrations show periodic fluctuations driven by seasonal factors and fertilizer usage. Sulfate levels exhibit high variability of both natural and anthropogenic origin, while chloride concentrations remain relatively stable. Data on dissolved oxygen and BOD₅ indicate seasonal dynamics, which have been disrupted since 2023 due to the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. The analysis confirmed the river's capacity for partial self-recovery, particularly under reduced anthropogenic pressure during wartime. Regression models were developed for predictive assessment of pollution levels and environmental risks. Conclusions. The study identified key ecological problems in the Dnipro River, including organic and mineral pollution, disrupted hydrological regimes, and decreased oxygenation. The war-related destruction of hydrotechnical infrastructure exacerbated these issues. Despite this, the river demonstrated resilience through natural self-purification processes, especially as phosphate and ammonium loads declined. Restoration of ecological balance will require systemic monitoring, rehabilitation of water infrastructure, and regulation of pollutant sources. The developed models provide a basis for forecasting and managing surface water quality under both peacetime and post-war recovery scenarios.
Ecological Assessment of Surface Water Conditions of the Danube River
(2025) Horoshkova, Lidiіa; Menshov, Oleksandr; Korniichuk, Yuliia; Horoshkov, Stanislav; Ryshykov, Igor
Purpose. To provide a comprehensive environmental assessment and forecasting of the condition of surface waters of the Danube River within the Ukrainian section (Reni – Izmail – Vylkove), with a focus on the dynamics of key hydrochemical indicators over the period 2010–2024. Special attention is given to the influence of anthropogenic factors, including intensive navigation, industrial pressure, and the environmental consequences of military actions, which have altered the hydrological regime and deteriorated water quality. Methods. System analysis, statistical data processing, distribution analysis, and regression modeling were employed to assess retrospective dynamics and predict future trends in water quality. The information was sourced from long-term monitoring data collected at observation stations in the cities of Kiliya, Vylkove, and the river’s mouth. Results. The analysis focused on six key water quality indicators: phosphates, ammonium, sulfates, chlorides, biochemical oxygen demand over five days (BOD₅), and dissolved oxygen concentration. Phosphate and ammonium compounds exhibited seasonal fluctuations, attributed to discharges of organic and agricultural origin. Sulfate concentrations were found to be highly variable, combining both natural and anthropogenic sources, while chloride levels remained stable with signs of chronic influence. The analysis of BOD₅ and dissolved oxygen indicators suggests a potential for self-purification, although certain periods revealed deterioration in oxygen balance, particularly due to localized organic overload and disrupted hydrodynamics. Developed regression models allowed the identification of relationships between hydrological changes, port activity intensity, and pollution levels.Conclusions. The main environmental issues of the lower Danube were identified as organic and mineral pollution, eutrophication, decreased oxygen levels, hydromorphological changes, and threats posed by armed conflict. Despite these challenges, the river retains a capacity for partial self-recovery, especially under reduced anthropogenic pressure. Restoring ecological balance will require the implementation of systematic monitoring, modernization of wastewater treatment facilities, effective pollution source management, and Ukraine’s active participation in international environmental regulatory mechanisms, such as the Danube Commission. The modeling results can be used to forecast water environment conditions in both peacetime development and post-war recovery scenarios.
Impact of electric power facilities on natural phytocenotic diversity
(2024) Glibovytska, Nataliia; Rashevska, Hanna; Arkhypova, Liudmyla; Adamenko, Yaroslav; Orfanova, Mariia
The relevance of studying the impact of electric power facilities on natural phytocenotic diversity lies in the necessity to preserve ecosystems due to the increasing number and size of electrical facilities, which potentially can affect the functioning of natural environments. The research aims to investigate the impact of electric power facilities on species diversity. The research is carried out at 46 monitoring sites in the immediate vicinity of the source of electromagnetic and noise pollution within the influence of the Burshtyn thermal power plant, the Bohorodchany solar power plant, the Shevchenkove wind power plant, the Tereble-Rytska hydroelectric power plant, under regional and cross-border power transmission lines. The representation of plant species at the monitoring sites is analysed. In general, 196 plant species are identified. Herbaceous plants dominate (from 74 to 100% of all plant life forms) at all monitoring sites, except for one site. Shrubs are present in 11 monitoring sites (from 5 to 25% of all plant life forms). The trees are represented in 20 monitoring sites (from 4 to 75% of all plant life forms). 179 species belong to the first class of constancy, 12 species belong to the second class and 5 species belong to the third class of constancy (91, 6.5 and 2.5%, respectively). The last plants have been identified as indicators of the influence of power plants. The most common plant families that exist under the influence of electrical installations are established. The largest number of species is represented by the Asteraceae, Rosaceae and Poaceae families – 37, 19 and 15 species, respectively. The species of the third constancy class have the highest representativeness. Daucus carota L., Achillea millefiolium, and Trifolium pratense L. are the dominant plant species in the areas impacted by electric power facilities. 180 species belong to the first constancy class. They cannot be suitable as phytoindicators of the ecological state in the areas affected by power plants. The results can be used to develop environmental protection strategies and measures to reduce the negative impact of power generation facilities on flora
Long-Term Temporal Variation of Land Use Transition on Soil Carbon Stocks in Mediterranean Karst Ecosystems
(Forestist, 2024) Dindaroglu, Turgay; Boran, Bilal; Babur, Emre; Menshov, Oleksandr
Accelerating urbanization and unplanned excessive human pressure are increasing changes in major land use. These transitions cause long-term negative transformations in rural systems. This study was conducted to examine the changes in some soil properties and carbon stocks of lands that were converted from forest to cropland 30 years ago in ten di#erent villages in the Karaisalı district of Adana, Türkiye. A total of 360 disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were taken from two depth levels (0–30 cm and 30–60 cm) from the soil pits in the adjacent forest and converted to cropland and agricultural areas. Soil organic carbon and bulk density analyses were performed on all soil samples. According to the data obtained from the topsoil (0–30 cm) 101.56 tC ha−1 , 69.06 tC ha−1 , and 66.25 tC ha−1 carbon were stored in the topsoil of the forest, and converted to cropland and agricultural area, respectively. There has been an average of 32% reduction in soil carbon stocks in converted cropland from degraded forest areas. Dramatic reduction in carbon stocks occurred in the topsoil (0–30 cm). Policymakers need to plan their land-use management policies to take into account the ecological consequences of the land-use transition.
Mathematical modeling of pollution of underground aquifers due to mining of minerals
(2024) Pukish, Arsen; Mandryk, Oleh; Arkhypova, Liudmyla; Syrovets, Serhii; Hryniuk, Diana
Purpose. The research aims to create a mathematical model of salt contamination spreading through underground aquifers in the event of depressurization of the hydrocarbon production well crater for further assessment of environmental and economic damage from these processes. Methods. To predict the environmental and economic damage from salt contamination, the distribution of concentrations of harmful substances was investigated, taking into account the number of supply sources and their intensity over time, based on situ studies at the Rybalske Oil Field, Okhtyrskyi District of Sumska Oblast in Ukraine, where there were technological failures wells, accompanied by open fountains with the release of large amounts of highly mineralized water and the formation of craters. Mathematical modelling methods were used to process the data from the study of accidental technogenic pollution of underground aquifers. Findings. Based on real data from the study of the processes of potential salt contamination spread in fresh aquifers as a result of accidents at hydrocarbon production facilities, a mathematical model of salt contamination spreading in drinking groundwater in the event of depressurization of an oil field well crater has been developed. Potential economic losses in case of possible groundwater contamination with highly mineralized solution, which can into drinking groundwater aquifers, are substantiated. It has been established that in connection with the occurrence of an emergency situation due to the release of formation water to the surface in the territory of oil and gas fields, the formation of technogenic meromictic reservoirs is possible, which is confirmed by the example of the Rybalske Oil Field. It is proved that the total mineralization of crater water increases linearly with depth of the reservoir occurrence, and a similar dependence is characteristic of the chloride ion content. Originality. For the first time, a multicomponent mathematical model of mineral salt migration processes in underground freshwater aquifers in the case of depressurization of a meromictic reservoir has been developed. Practical implications. The research results obtained using numerical methods make it possible to predict the processes of spreading harmful substances in drinking underground aquifers as a result of emergencies at oil and gas fields, taking into account the number of sources of pollutants penetrating the study area, the heterogeneity of properties of the environment into which the harmful substance enters, and to assess the dynamics of changes in the concentration of these substances and time with further assessment of environmental and economic damage from these processes.
The methodology for adaptive modeling and forecasting nonlinear and nonstationary processes
(2024) Trofymchuk, Oleksandr; Bidiuk, Petro; Terentiev, Oleksandr; Klymenko, Victoriia
The study is directed towards development of systemic methodology for modeling and forecasting nonlinear and nonstationary processes in economy, finances and other areas of human activities. There exist multiple problems that are to be solved with the data of such type practically in all areas of human activities: such as constructing adequate models including estimation and forecasting state of a system under investigation; technical, economic and medical diagnostics; automatic control in technologies; moving objects control; financial and other risk estimation and management; risk factor interaction; control and monitoring of microclimate in greenhouses and industrial enterprises; decision making support in business; dynamic strategic planning in production; providing stability for critical economic infrastructure etc. The structure and parameter adaptation procedures for the regression and probabilistic models are proposed as well as respective information system architecture and functional layout are developed. The system development is based on the system analysis principles such as hierarchical architecture of the system, adaptive approach to model structure estimation, optimization of model parameter estimation procedures, functional completeness of the system providing for autonomous operation of the system, identification and taking into consideration of possible uncertainties available in the process of data processing and mathematical model development, application of appropriate sets of quality criteria that are guarantying high quality of intermediate and final results of data analysis. The possible uncertainties are inherent to data collecting, model constructing and forecasting procedures, and play the role of negative influence factors to the computational procedures of proposed information system. Reduction of their influence is favorable for enhancing the quality of intermediate and final results of computations. The illustrative examples of practical application of the methodology developed proving the system functionality are provided.
The systematic review of variety of military, weapon, combat and warfare system-of-systems wuth their new classification and ontology depiction for further concept and design development for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
(2024) Tymchuk, Volodymyr; Trysnyuk, Vasyl
A system-of-systems is a special complex structure in which new capabilities arise from interacting independent pieces that are controlled by multiple operators. One special kind of similar structure are military, or weapon, system-of-systems. The architecture of weapon SoS consists of the constituent systems (pieces), of interfaces and IT, of communication and exchanges occurring between the systems. The architecture of the SoS is always in a state of flux, but in warfare the demands to change the structure of weapon SoS are emphasized. To save lives and to win both in close battles and long war is the main mission of HQ, common combat forces and supporting efforts. In the article the architecture of created SoS in different countries (mainly in U. S., but also in NATO and P. R. C.) are presented – their schemes, components, purposes and key peculiarities. These features allow to get the ontology for typical variant of SoS – they all were divided into five classes. So, we suppose that SoS may by differed by their creation, or evolution, or transition, or combination, or due to attaching to non-SoS. In general, the development planning of the military or weapon SoS is a challenging strategic analysis work because it involves various aspects, such as mission tasks, capability requirements, weapon effectiveness, and economic benefits. But in demands of lifesaving in warfare the expectable replacing soldiers via an autonomous vehicle SoS are straightforward, so it is need to understand the concept and main features of SoS.
War impact assessment on the state of regional labour markets in Ukraine
(2024) Horoshkova, Lidiіa; Sydorenko, Viktoriia; Herasymenko, Yuliia
The aim of the article is to assess the impact of the war on regional labour markets. Methodology. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are the works of classical and modern economic science on the development of the labour market, employment and unemployment, including in the context of the crisis. The monographic method was used to highlight the views of scholars on the problem under study. In the course of the research, the authors used general scientific (analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analytical grouping) and special (abstraction, modelling, benchmarking studies, etc.) methods of studying economic phenomena and processes. Data from the State Statistics Service of the Regions of Ukraine for 2021-2023 were used for the assessment. Results. The article provides a comparative analysis of the situation on the labour market for people with higher education in two oblasts of Ukraine – Zaporizhzhia and Khmelnytskyi. The main characteristics studied were the number of vacancies, unemployed, their share in the overall structure of employment and unemployment in the region, and the level of remuneration. The paper establishes that the full-scale aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has had a negative impact on the functioning of the labour market of Ukraine in general and its regional segments in particular. However, this impact was not catastrophic, as evidenced by the situation on the labour market in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which is mostly occupied. In Khmelnytskyi Oblast, the war resulted in changes in the supply and demand for specialists with higher education, and a reduction in their salaries. This can be explained both by the displacement of relevant specialists and by businesses that contributed to the improvement of the employment situation in the region. The analysis has shown that there is potential to overcome labour market imbalances in the context of people with higher education. Practical significance. The findings have practical and political implications. The results of the analysis can be used to develop the main directions of the state regional policy to overcome the negative impact on the labour market of people with higher education in the conditions of war and taking into account the needs of post-war recovery of the country. Value / Originality. The distinctive feature of this study is its comparative analysis of the impact of the war on the labour market of individuals with higher education in regions that have experienced markedly disparate circumstances since the onset of the full-scale invasion. These include Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which is situated along the frontline and has been partially occupied, and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, which is situated at a considerable distance from the contact line. The analysis has shown that there is a potential to overcome labour market imbalances in the context of people with higher education both during the war and at the stage of post-war reconstruction.

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