The grain market of Ukraine: actual state, current problems, and development prospects
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Date
2022
Authors
Cheremisina, Svitlana
Rossokha, Volodymyr
Mazurenko, Olena
Selinnyi, Mykhailo
Tomashevska, Olha
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
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Abstract
The article is devoted to the current problems occurring in the grain industry as a result of Russia’s armed aggression and active hostilities in a large area of Ukraine. The purpose of the article is operational monitoring of the current state of the grain market in Ukraine and the calculation of forecast parameters of its stabilization and further development in the conditions of military aggression. The research used the information database of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, and the information and analytical materials of the NSC Institute of Agrarian Economics regarding the forecast indicators of the production of agricultural products in Ukraine in 2022 year. The production forecast is made taking into account losses of cultivated areas, damage to crops, violations of production technologies and a decrease in the yield of grain crops. The total production of grain crops in 2022 is forecast to be 53.6 million tons, which is almost 40% lower than in 2021. The area under harvest is expected to decrease by 4.7 million hectares (from 15.9 to 12.3 million hectares). The actual losses of products of the grain market of Ukraine
in the current 2022 are estimated at 204 billion UAH, or almost 7 billion EUR. The biggest losses will be experienced by the production of corn – EUR 3 billion, wheat – EUR 2.7 billion, barley – EUR 0.9 billion. To determine the extent of destructive shifts occurring in the grain market of Ukraine, the actual (for 2020 and 2021) and forecast for 2022 balances of grain products were made. The main factors that will affect the functioning and further stabilization of the grain market in Ukraine have been established.
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Keywords
grain market, production forecast, losses of sown areas, crop losses, production balance, domestic consumption, total demand, total supply, article
Citation
The grain market of Ukraine: actual state, current problems, and development prospects / Svitlana Cheremisina, Volodumur Rossokha, Olena Mazurenko, Mykhailo Selinnyi, Olha Tomashevska // Economic Studies = Икономически изследвания. - 2022. - Vol. 31, Issue 8. - P. 172-187.