Оцінювання боргового навантаження та платоспроможності України на сучасному етапі
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Date
2020
Authors
Прімєрова, Олена
Осадча, Катерина
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Abstract
У статті здійснено дослідження основних аспектів вимірювання боргового навантаження
на економіку України та економічних наслідків існування державного боргу. За допомогою
індикаторів боргової безпеки проаналізовано сучасний стан державного боргу. Для
оцінювання рівня боргового навантаження та платоспроможності країни використано
метод головних компонент. Висновки, одержані в результаті моделювання засвідчили, що
боргова ситуація погіршується при зростанні показників боргового навантаження та
платоспроможності, а також при наближенні їх значень до гранично допустимих меж.
Відповідно, задля забезпечення дієвості боргової політики необхідним є зниження
розглянутих боргових індикаторів до безпечних меж і чіткий контроль за їх значенням у
наступних періодах. Визначено заходи з оптимізації боргової політики України на сучасному
етапі.
The volume of government borrowing, its dynamics and structure directly affects all areas of financial and economic activity of the state, which is why the statistical analysis of the structure and volume of debt burden of the country acquires special significance in the process of financial security management. The article examines the main aspects of measuring the debt burden on the economy of Ukraine and the economic consequences of public debt. With the help of debt security indicators the current state of public debt was studied. The ratio of total state debt to GDP was analyzed as important general indicators of the country's debt. Particular attention was payed to the ratio of state external and domestic debt to GDP and their dynamics. Also such important debt security indicators as the ratio of costs of repayment and servicing of external debt to GDP, to exports of goods and services, to state budget revenues were determined. Their dynamics and critical values were studied. The principal components method was used to assess the level of debt burden and the country's solvency. The conclusions obtained as a result of the simulation showed that the debt situation deteriorates with the growth of debt burden and solvency, as well as when their values approach the maximum allowable limits. Accordingly, in order to ensure the effectiveness of debt policy, it is necessary to reduce the considered debt indicators to safe limits and clear control over their value in the coming periods. Measures to optimize Ukraine's debt policy at the present stage have been identified: restructuring of state debt in the terms of currency and increasing of the share of debt nominated in the national currency; increasing the average maturity of government securities, ensuring the schedule of repayment of state debt; reducing peak budget burdens; further improvement of public debt management policy through the establishment and operation of the Public Debt Management Agency using the best world practices; increasing long-term concessional financing by expanding cooperation with international financial organizations.
The volume of government borrowing, its dynamics and structure directly affects all areas of financial and economic activity of the state, which is why the statistical analysis of the structure and volume of debt burden of the country acquires special significance in the process of financial security management. The article examines the main aspects of measuring the debt burden on the economy of Ukraine and the economic consequences of public debt. With the help of debt security indicators the current state of public debt was studied. The ratio of total state debt to GDP was analyzed as important general indicators of the country's debt. Particular attention was payed to the ratio of state external and domestic debt to GDP and their dynamics. Also such important debt security indicators as the ratio of costs of repayment and servicing of external debt to GDP, to exports of goods and services, to state budget revenues were determined. Their dynamics and critical values were studied. The principal components method was used to assess the level of debt burden and the country's solvency. The conclusions obtained as a result of the simulation showed that the debt situation deteriorates with the growth of debt burden and solvency, as well as when their values approach the maximum allowable limits. Accordingly, in order to ensure the effectiveness of debt policy, it is necessary to reduce the considered debt indicators to safe limits and clear control over their value in the coming periods. Measures to optimize Ukraine's debt policy at the present stage have been identified: restructuring of state debt in the terms of currency and increasing of the share of debt nominated in the national currency; increasing the average maturity of government securities, ensuring the schedule of repayment of state debt; reducing peak budget burdens; further improvement of public debt management policy through the establishment and operation of the Public Debt Management Agency using the best world practices; increasing long-term concessional financing by expanding cooperation with international financial organizations.
Description
Keywords
державний борг, боргове навантаження, боргова безпека, індикатори боргової безпеки, стаття, public debt, public debt management, debt security, debt security indicators
Citation
Прімєрова О. К. Оцінювання боргового навантаження та платоспроможності України на сучасному етапі [електронний ресурс] / О. К. Прімєрова, К. І. Осадча // Ефективна економіка. - 2020. - № 10. - [8 с.].