Ukrainian-Russian Conflict and Its Implications for Northeast Asia

Abstract

In 2014, the crisis over Ukraine became the most serious European crisis since the end of the Cold War. Russia's intervention in Crimea and Donbas was open violation of security assurances given by great powers to denuclearized Ukraine. It undermined credibility of great powers and created dangerous precedents for South Korea, Japan, and other U.S. allies in Asia. It increased tension in East and South China Seas as well as in the Korean Peninsula, making Pyongyang rely more on nuclear weapons. Trying to avoid Western sanctions and isolation, Russia moved closer to China. But this rapprochement and opening of Asian markets to Russia have limitations due to security concerns of U.S. allies and present sanctions. Annexation of Crimea and Russia's drift to China increase the role of U.S. commitment to its allies. Western sectoral sanctions should be preserved until Minsk-2 agreement is fulfilled and Russian regular troops and "volunteers" leave Ukraine.