Abstract:
This paper aims to break into a "black box" of inner authoritarian elite
mechanics by elucidating the rationales for elite behavior under the pressure of mass
discontent during the Peaceful Revolution of 1989 in the GDR. A game-theoretic model is
applied and statistically tested in order to explore causal links between elite members’ office
types and their biological and institutional age on the one hand and defection on the other.
The data corroborate three out of four initial hypotheses, namely that (1) party functionaries
and (2) persons holding repression-related offices are most prone to defect, and that (3) both
inner and outer party circle officials offer equal support to demands for liberalization. One
hypothesis was only partly validated: there is an only partial causal relation between age and
proneness to defect.
