Economic and mathematical modelling of ecosystems' territorial sustainability

Abstract

The study is relevant, because nowadays the growth of anthropogenic loads and air pollution require special attention to the modelling of determinants of pollutant emissions` dynamics Economic and statistical modelling of pollutant emissions` mass and growth rates during 1991 - 2017 applying statistical indicators of relative and cumulative frequency has been made in the article. The following substances have been studied: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. Statistical indicators of relative and cumulative frequency have been used when modelling. It has been taken into consideration in the model that values of emissions during the studied period are marginal ones, which do not pose a threat to the environment in the country. It has been proposed to consider the reliability degree equal to half of the confidence interval for the general arithmetic average growth rate of emissions and their growth rates as the limits of Ukrainian ecosystem`s sustainable development. The obtained results have been tested by the estimation based on the confidence interval for the mean. The study results can be used to predict environmental pollution parameters in Ukraine, which will not cause an environmental disaster.