Моделювання міграційних процесів в Україні як регулятора соціально-економічної стабільності: автореферат дисертації на здобуття наукового ступеня кандидата економічних наук
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Date
2021
Authors
Новік, Аліна
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Abstract
Автореферат дисертації на здобуття наукового ступеня кандидата економічних наук за спеціальністю 08.00.11 "Математичні методи, моделі та інформаційні технології в економіці". ДВНЗ "Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана", Київ, 2021.
У дисертаційній роботі розроблено комплекс динамічних макромоделей економіки України, що включає векторну авторегресійну модель та окремий комплекс імітаційних підмоделей системної динаміки, спрямованих на дослідження міграційних процесів та їх впливу на показники соціально-економічної стабільності. Комплекс економіко-математичних нелінійних імітаційних макромоделей на основі методів системної динаміки складається з макромоделей ринку праці, формування тіньової заробітної плати, формування міграційних потоків, надходження грошових потоків від мігрантів в Україну, а також економетричної VAR-моделі взаємозалежності міграційних потоків та макроекономічних показників, що дозволяє адекватно описати складні нелінійні процеси, системно визначити та дослідити механізми формування попиту і пропозиції на ринку праці з урахуванням тіньової складової та оцінити їх вплив на формування величини міграційних потоків, а також дослідити наслідки посилення інтенсивності міграційних процесів на соціально-економічну стабільність в Україні. При цьому, розроблені моделі системної динаміки можуть об’єднуватись як в єдину оригінальну імітаційну макромодель України, так і використовуватись самостійно в залежності від цілей дослідження.
На підставі отриманих результатів узагальнено поняття міграції та мігранта, соціально-економічної стабільності, визначено ключові фактори, що впливають на формування міграційних процесів, оцінено короткострокові та довгострокові ефекти інтенсифікації міграційних потоків на економіку, та проведено широкий спектр сценарного аналізу, що дозволяє визначити перспективні напрями державної політики щодо регулювання ринку праці та міграційних потоків за умов значної тінізації економіки для досягнення соціально-економічної стабільності у довгостроковому періоді.
Thesis for the degree of candidate of economic sciences in the specialty 08.00.11 "Mathematical methods, models and information technologies in economics." Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Kyiv, 2021. In the dissertation, a complex of dynamic macroeconomic models of the Ukrainian economy was developed, including a vector autoregressive model and a separate complex of imitation submodels of system dynamics aimed at studying migration processes and their impact on indicators of socio-economic stability. The statistical analysis preceding modeling of the influence of migration on economic indicators was conducted. Taking into consideration the nature of economic processes and migration flows, and the fact that the presence of a significant shadow sector distorts statistics, including employment and unemployment, it was necessary to choose the most appropriate methods which can provide adequate analysis taking into account the additional impact of shadow economy on migration and vice versa. The complex of economic and mathematical nonlinear imitation macroeconomic models which consists of such methods as the system dynamics and econometric VAR model of the interdependence of migration flows and macroeconomic indicators allows describing nonlinear processes that occur in economics due to the intensification of migration flows. The system dynamics model consists of 7 different modules which include the submodels of the labor market, shadow wage formation, general macroeconomic, population distribution, formation of wage, remittances, and migration flows, which consist of internal and external migration. The complex of these modules made it possible to conduct the scenario analysis of different policies aimed at the prediction of the risks for the economy in the long and short run related to the intensification of migration flows in terms of the high level of the shadow economy. At the same time, the developed models of system dynamics can be used both as a complicated system or independently, basing on the objectives of the research. Besides, the developed VAR model on the one hand helps to identify the impact of migration on the labor market and economy, and on the other hand, determines which economic indicator has the greatest impact on the intensification of migration flows. Both VAR and system dynamics models interact in the complex, as the level of migration calculated in the system dynamics population distribution submodel was used in the evaluation of VAR, as well as the results obtained in VAR were used in the evaluation of the system dynamics migration submodel. The built complex allows to describe the nonlinear processes and systematically determine and study the mechanisms of formation of supply and demand in the labor market, taking into account the shadow component and assess their impact on the formation of the size of migration flows, as well as to study the consequences of increasing the intensity of migration processes on socioeconomic stability in Ukraine. It makes the complex complete by expanding the range of scenario analysis and the accuracy of the forecast in the long and short term. Based on the obtained results, the concepts of migration, migrant, and socio-economic stability were generalized. Systematization and analysis of the main hypotheses of the impact of significant shadowing of the economy on the intensity of migration processes in Ukraine in the context of socio-economic stability allowed us to determine that migration is not a cause, but a consequence of high levels of shadow economy and instability. An analysis of the experience of individual countries in reforming labor markets and reducing the shadow economy revealed that changing unemployment, increasing social guarantees for workers, and stimulating employment to increase wages, has a positive impact on the labor market in general, and in particular on reducing the net migration. Based on the simulation results, a wide range of scenario analysis was carried out to determine promising directions of state policy on regulation of the labor market and migration flows to achieve socio-economic stability in the long term. The results of the simulation show that in the short term migration in Ukraine reduces the consequences of sudden economic shocks, but in a long term can be either an opportunity or a threat for social and economic stability due to its high impact on the processes on the labor market. The results of scenario analysis show that the most effective ways for migration regulation are to provide the policy for lowering the level of unemployment and increasing the wage, which can be achieved by conducting the reorganization of the employment service in Ukraine and by stimulation of the businesses for lowering the shadow part of the payments, that will allow the employees to get the social guarantees. These measures will help to increase the social and economic stability, balance the situation on the labor market and contribute to stable economic growth.
Thesis for the degree of candidate of economic sciences in the specialty 08.00.11 "Mathematical methods, models and information technologies in economics." Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, Kyiv, 2021. In the dissertation, a complex of dynamic macroeconomic models of the Ukrainian economy was developed, including a vector autoregressive model and a separate complex of imitation submodels of system dynamics aimed at studying migration processes and their impact on indicators of socio-economic stability. The statistical analysis preceding modeling of the influence of migration on economic indicators was conducted. Taking into consideration the nature of economic processes and migration flows, and the fact that the presence of a significant shadow sector distorts statistics, including employment and unemployment, it was necessary to choose the most appropriate methods which can provide adequate analysis taking into account the additional impact of shadow economy on migration and vice versa. The complex of economic and mathematical nonlinear imitation macroeconomic models which consists of such methods as the system dynamics and econometric VAR model of the interdependence of migration flows and macroeconomic indicators allows describing nonlinear processes that occur in economics due to the intensification of migration flows. The system dynamics model consists of 7 different modules which include the submodels of the labor market, shadow wage formation, general macroeconomic, population distribution, formation of wage, remittances, and migration flows, which consist of internal and external migration. The complex of these modules made it possible to conduct the scenario analysis of different policies aimed at the prediction of the risks for the economy in the long and short run related to the intensification of migration flows in terms of the high level of the shadow economy. At the same time, the developed models of system dynamics can be used both as a complicated system or independently, basing on the objectives of the research. Besides, the developed VAR model on the one hand helps to identify the impact of migration on the labor market and economy, and on the other hand, determines which economic indicator has the greatest impact on the intensification of migration flows. Both VAR and system dynamics models interact in the complex, as the level of migration calculated in the system dynamics population distribution submodel was used in the evaluation of VAR, as well as the results obtained in VAR were used in the evaluation of the system dynamics migration submodel. The built complex allows to describe the nonlinear processes and systematically determine and study the mechanisms of formation of supply and demand in the labor market, taking into account the shadow component and assess their impact on the formation of the size of migration flows, as well as to study the consequences of increasing the intensity of migration processes on socioeconomic stability in Ukraine. It makes the complex complete by expanding the range of scenario analysis and the accuracy of the forecast in the long and short term. Based on the obtained results, the concepts of migration, migrant, and socio-economic stability were generalized. Systematization and analysis of the main hypotheses of the impact of significant shadowing of the economy on the intensity of migration processes in Ukraine in the context of socio-economic stability allowed us to determine that migration is not a cause, but a consequence of high levels of shadow economy and instability. An analysis of the experience of individual countries in reforming labor markets and reducing the shadow economy revealed that changing unemployment, increasing social guarantees for workers, and stimulating employment to increase wages, has a positive impact on the labor market in general, and in particular on reducing the net migration. Based on the simulation results, a wide range of scenario analysis was carried out to determine promising directions of state policy on regulation of the labor market and migration flows to achieve socio-economic stability in the long term. The results of the simulation show that in the short term migration in Ukraine reduces the consequences of sudden economic shocks, but in a long term can be either an opportunity or a threat for social and economic stability due to its high impact on the processes on the labor market. The results of scenario analysis show that the most effective ways for migration regulation are to provide the policy for lowering the level of unemployment and increasing the wage, which can be achieved by conducting the reorganization of the employment service in Ukraine and by stimulation of the businesses for lowering the shadow part of the payments, that will allow the employees to get the social guarantees. These measures will help to increase the social and economic stability, balance the situation on the labor market and contribute to stable economic growth.
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Keywords
аналіз, моделювання, ринок праці, моделювання міграційних процесів, векторні авторегресійні моделі міграції, системна динаміка, тіньова економіка, автореферат дисертації, analysis, modeling, labor market, modeling of migration processes, vector autoregressive models of migration, system dynamics, shadow economy
Citation
Новік А. Ю. Моделювання міграційних процесів в Україні як регулятора соціально-економічної стабільності : автореферат дисертації на здобуття наукового ступеня кандидата економічних наук / Новік Аліна Юріївна ; наук. кер. Лук'яненко І. Г. ; М-во освіти і науки України, Державний вищий навчальний заклад "Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана". - Київ : [б. в.], 2021. - 20 с.