Population Aging and Economic Dynamics in Ukraine: Models of Endogenous Growth Theory and Empirical Estimates of Current Challenges
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Date
2019
Authors
Heyets, Valeriy
Skrypnychenko, Mariya
Shumska, Svitlana
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Volume Title
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Abstract
Among the global problems faced by different
countries in the last decade, the article looks at population
aging. In the context of assessing the impact of population
aging on economic dynamics, the scientific novelty of research
is to find a solution to this problem in the plane of conceptual
ideas formulated in theoretical models of endogenous growth.
The authors emphasize the necessity of a state policy aimed
at supporting "active aging", which will help to activate human
capital and economic growth by increasing formal employment
of people over 60 and reducing informal employment
accordingly. Using the linear regression equations, the
hypothesis that there is a positive effect of active aging on
economic dynamics and productivity in Ukraine has been
statistically confirmed and quantitative estimates of the impact
of these factors have been obtained. The authors' calculations
show that the positive effects of such policy, in particular, are
possible with the increase in health care costs, which depend on
the activity and mobility of the retirement age.
Among the challenges, the authors tested the hypothesis of
an increase in informal employment and the shadow economy
in the absence of government policies aimed at addressing
aging. The use of VAR modeling has made it possible to
confirm the relationship between real GDP, informal
employment and the size of the shadow sector of the Ukrainian
economy. The impulse response functions and variance
decomposition confirm the negative impact of the growth of
informal employment and, accordingly, the shadow economy
on the economic dynamics in Ukraine.
The practical significance of this study is the application of
its results in the development of measures of economic policy
and strategy of socio-economic development of Ukraine.
Description
Keywords
population aging, endogenous growth theory, informal labor, regression analysis, VAR model, Ukraine, conference materials
Citation
Heyets V. Population Aging and Economic Dynamics in Ukraine: Models of Endogenous Growth Theory and Empirical Estimates of Current Challenges / Valeriy Heyets, Mariya Skrypnychenko, Svitlana Shumska // Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research. - 2019. - Vol. 99. - P. 283-288.