Dynamic Modelling of Migration Flows in Ukraine in the Context of Globalization

Abstract

Due to the processes of globalization in the world, there is an increase in the population's inclination to migrate abroad. At the same time, there is the insufficient number of scientific work on this subject using mathematical tools, which promotes the need for in-depth study and search of new ways of regulating the problem of external migration in Ukraine and in the world. Solving the objectives of the proposed study is a contribution to the study of the problems of large migratory flows and problems arising from their ineffective regulation, and it also corresponds to the world and national priorities of science development. Based on the theories of migration, previously obtained results and new data, the new dynamic process simulation model of external migration flows in Ukraine will be created. The main factors, impact of which on the regulation of mobility in Ukraine will be evaluated not only qualitatively but also quantitatively are: the ratio of wages in Ukraine and recipient countries, differences in the level of GDP per capita, the possibility of purchase (rental) housing, differences in the level of marginal propensity to consume, etc. Based on the created simulation model, a scenario analysis is carried out and the main problems of the current regulation of migration flow existing in Ukraine are identified.