State of Minsk agreements implementation: an unofficial Ukrainian experts' opinion: [analytical report]

Abstract

"Minsk agreements" is a common name for a package of documents adopted in September 2014 and February 2015. The ceasefire of September 2014 was violated by Russian and separatists’ forces, leading to a significant increase of the area not controlled by Ukrainian government by February 2015. "Package of measures for the implementation of Minsk Agreements" ("Minsk-2") was signed on 12 February 2015 after its content was negotiated at "Normandy format" summit in Minsk between the Presidents of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Chancellor of Germany. The Agreements were supported by the US, the EU and the UN Security Council. In March 2015, the European Council has agreed that the duration of the economic sanctions against Russia shall be linked to the complete implementation of the Minsk agreements. Analysis of the Minsk agreements implementation demonstrates that despite few steps forward made, the trend is observed of the systematic violation of the certain clauses as well as serious manipulation of the others by the socalled "Donetsk People Republic"/ "Luhansk People Republic" ("DPR"/"LPR") separatist combatants and the Russian Federation. Lifting international sanctions seems the only incentive for Russia to comply with Minsk agreements. Its current tactic lies in partial implementation, which would help to apply for easing sanctions and thus decreasing the cost of her waging war against Ukraine. At the same time, Russia preserves the possibility to once more escalate the currently low intensity conflict at any convenient moment.